020
FNUS73 KMPX 031002
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Erickson WPA...Usfws
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
502 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Any morning fog will have dissipated by the ignition time, with
temperatures quickly warming from the low 50s to the upper 60s by
mid-afternoon. RH values could ip below 40% this afternoon if
temperatures overachieve into the 70s, but otherwise will most
likely bottom out in the mid 40s. Winds will gradually shift from
WSW to more SW into the afternoon with speeds around 10 mph. A
wind shift to a more southerly direction is expected this evening,
with speeds dropping to around 5 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 68.
RH..................74 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 10 to 13
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /22100 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /110700 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC  PC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  55  58  61  63  65  67  68  68  67  64  60
RH..............74  64  55  49  46  43  42  39  39  40  50  55
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  12  12  12  12  13  13  13  12  9   5   5
20 FT wind gust.16  17  17  17  17  20  20  20  17  14  7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8 4.7 2.5 0.8 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.18  20  18  18  22  21  21  22  20  15  8   8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 3 am. Chance of rain showers
                    after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 6 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (32700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast
                    9 to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight,
                    then shifting to the east 8 to 9 mph overnight
                    shifting to the north after 3 am.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers in
                    the morning, then chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    around 7 mph early in the morning, then
                    shifting to the northwest early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (68400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 17
                    to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Ahasic
Requested by...Tracy Ronnander
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413044.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tracy_ronnander@fws.gov