Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
163 FXUS65 KMSO 060745 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 145 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 .DISCUSSION...Precipitation will continue to move up from the southeast throughout the morning. Snow is already accumulating on Lost Trail Pass and snow levels are expected to lower further this morning. If your morning commute takes you over Lost Trail, Williams, Gilmore Summit, Homestake, or MacDonald Passes, please add additional time for potentially slippery conditions. Stratiform rain or snow will slowly end around noon for most. Flow becomes westerly during the afternoon and very breezy conditions develop, as well as afternoon convection. Tuesday morning as our current low pressure system moves into eastern MT, it will strengthen pushing wrap around moisture across the Continental Divide. West to northwesterly winds strengthen and gusts 30 to 35 mph will be common. Expect stratiform rain and snow to redevelop Tuesday evening, especially along the Divide. Snow levels are expected to lower to around 4000 feet Wednesday morning. Expect hefty snow totals in the higher terrain, above 5000 feet, in the Glacier Region, Mission, Swan, and Flathead Mountains. These regions have a 40 to 50% chance of receiving greater than 1 foot of wet snow. Another 0.25" of precipitation will be possible by Wednesday evening for all but Hells Canyon, ID and areas west of Flathead Valley, 60 to 70% probability. High pressure is expected to develop Thursday onward, with a classic Rex Block over the west coast. Our current Mothers Day forecast has temperatures 70s to 80s across the region. Stay tuned as a warming and drying pattern is becoming high probability within the models. && .AVIATION... Expect periods of low visibility and ceilings through 06/16z at area terminals as rain continues. Wind direction will gradually turn westerly during the morning, with wind magnitude increasing. Stratiform precipitation decreases late morning and becomes showery during the afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Eastern Lemhi County. && $$