098
FXUS66 KMTR 090946
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
246 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

A warming trend that kicked off yesterday will continue today and
persist into tomorrow across the interior. Conditions begin to cool
near the coast on Saturday with interior areas remaining 5-15
degrees above average into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

Clear sky conditions prevail across the region this morning as off
shore winds continue aloft. This will result in a warming trend
today with temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 80`s across the
interior while 70`s will be common near the coast (closer to the
lower 80`s in places such as Santa Cruz and Downtown San Fransico).
This will bring Minor HeatRisk to the coast today with Moderate
HeatRisk across the North Bay, East Bay, and South Bay both today
and Friday.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the North Bay Interior
Mountains with gusts expected to reach 45 mph and may exceed 55 mph
in the Mayacamas Mountains through 8 AM this morning. Gusts in the
East Bay Hills are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant
an advisory, but Mount Diablo is expected to see gusts of 40-50 mph
this morning.

Overnight lows will be warmest in the North Bay and interior part of
the East Bay given the weakening offshore flow with temperatures
only expected to cool into the mid-to-upper 50`s. Elsewhere, low-to-
mid 50`s are expected overnight. The HRRR is showing signs of a
southerly surge arriving by late afternoon and into the overnight
hours. If were to occur, expect much cooler temperatures near the
coast on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, especially for
inland locations. Again, a southerly surge may cool conditions at
the coast, but the interior will still warm into the mid-to-upper
80`s to lower 90`s.

With the significant warm up expected for the rest of the week,
here`s a reminder of some heat safety tips:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids.
* Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing.
* Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade.
* Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles.
* Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

As onshore flow increases, temperatures will cool regionwide.
However, interior areas will remain 5-15 degrees above average into
early next week.

From the previous forecaster: "Ensemble models and clusters are
showing that another ridge approaches the West Coast next week,
which could help maintain temperatures above the seasonal averages.
CPC products are showing temperatures above seasonal averages
continuing into the third week of May."

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR through the TAF period, though stratus will begin to hug the
central coast in the early morning of Thursday as it begins to
travel northwards along the coast of California. At this time, not
expecting any intrusions of stratus over area terminals within the
current TAF period. Winds will remain elevated somewhat throughout
the night tonight for most terminals remaining above 7 knots. Winds
slowly turn throughout the morning and afternoon of Thursday to go
from NE to a more N/NW flow and increase to become breezy. By the
late evening of Thursday, winds will ease to become light.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Surface winds expected to ease to become
light tonight, though winds aloft will remain somewhat elevated, so
have included LLWS in the TAF to reflect this. In the afternoon of
Thursday, breezy N/NW winds return, but ease to become light and
variable into the late night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period, though a
southerly surge of stratus will slowly creep its way up the coast,
hinting at the development of CIGs just beyond the current TAF
period. Otherwise, light winds overnight tonight and early Thursday
morning, though KSNS will see breezy southerly drainage winds in the
early morning. Come the afternoon, breezy onshore winds return.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

Moderate northerly winds continue through the morning, but slowly
ease to become gentle into the daytime. The one exception is the
Big Sur and Monterey Bay region where winds turn to become more
southerly and fresh in the afternoon today. Otherwise, gentle
breezes out of the north and northwest continue through the
weekend first portion of the weekend. Dry weather continues
through the forecast period as high pressure dominates.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ504.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this
     afternoon for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass/DialH
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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