462
FXUS61 KOKX 100533
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
133 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak waves of low pressure move across the northeast
tonight through the weekend. High pressure returns on Monday
before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the
region during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track for the overnight. No changes
currently to PoPs as timing of arrival of showers and rain from
west to east seems right in line. The low levels have moistened
with more warm advection driving the rain to be more widespread.

Low pressure travels along a stalled frontal boundary to our
south overnight. The rain may be briefly moderate at times.
Rainfall amounts through early Friday morning should average
around one quarter to one third of an inch. Temperatures
average closer to normal with lows in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Cloudy skies with periods of light rain continuing, especially
during the morning. There are some models hinting at some drier
conditions possibly by afternoon, however with enough low level
moisture in place, even if the steady rain comes to an end, we
will probably be left with a light mist or drizzle. Overall,
still looking at a damp and unsettled day. The cloudy skies and
continued easterly flow will keep temperatures in the 50s.

The last wave of low pressure passes further south and east
Friday night. Winds become more northeasterly to northerly with
some drying starting to take place. Any rain will become more
intermittent, and eventually after midnight, start coming to an
end. Total rainfall amounts will total up to a half inch or so
for much of the area, with lesser amounts further northeast. NW
sections of Orange County may receive up to 3/4 of an inch.
Temperatures should be near normal with middle 40s to around 50
for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Unsettled conditions will continue this weekend. While not a
washout, a few showers are possible, especially Saturday evening
into Sunday.

*Dry conditions currently expected Monday with high pressure nearby.

*Another low may impact the region Tuesday into the middle of the
week, but timing, track, and amplitude are all uncertain at this
time.

*Cool temperatures this weekend should trend close to seasonable
levels next week.

A broad upper level trough/upper low will continue to reside
over eastern North America this weekend. One shortwave will pass
to our east Saturday morning which should leave behind a brief
period of subsidence. Another shortwave quickly follows late
Saturday night Sunday. Low pressure may pass offshore ahead of
the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back over the
northeast. There is some question surrounding how much surface
ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher
probabilities of showers across the western half of the area.
The atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs
both days will only be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble
guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively
flat ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also
linger into a portion of Tuesday. Uncertainty increases for the
rest of the period as a southern stream shortwave moves out of
the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards the east coast the middle
of next week. An associated frontal system/low pressure should
evolve somewhere near the Middle Atlantic or northeast, but the
modeling has disagreed in the last several cycles. Feel the NBM
PoPs are too aggressive this far out with the degree of
uncertainty and with the potential that some of the system may
be triggered by ongoing convection, which is usually not
resolved well. Will hold PoPs at chance late Tuesday into
Thursday. It is unlikely this period will be a complete washout.
We should be able to refine the timing of precip, if any, in
the coming days as the models become better resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure passes to our south as it travels east tonight
through Friday. Weak high pressure returns Friday night.

Almost all terminals have dropped to MVFR in the last hour with
any not there currently expected to fall to MVFR shortly. IN
the next few hours, ceilings could drop to IFR, especially for
city terminals. Improvement to MVFR is expected around noon
Friday then possibly back to VFR late day into early evening.
Rain/showers have started and will continue through much of
Friday with the steadiest being during the morning push.

East  winds increase to around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt. Winds
back more NE over the morning into Friday/Friday evening and
diminish.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR categories in TAFs may only touch IFR on occasion.

LOw confidence on timing of return to Friday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: Improving to VFR by midnight.

Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Tuesday: VFR. SW G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
An easterly flow is expected to increase on the area waters
overnight. Small craft wind gusts develop on the ocean and NY
Harbor with more marginal small craft gusts more occasional for
the remaining non-ocean waters for the overnight. By Friday the
winds are forecast to slowly diminish as they gradually back
more to the NE and N into Friday night. Seas are also expected
to increase to 5-6 ft. Small crafts are expected for the western
and central ocean zones through Friday night for lingering
seas. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels this weekend
through early next week. Winds may increase Tuesday towards 20
kt, but think they remain below 25 kt at the present time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides continue to run high from the new moon
earlier this week. A persistent E flow will also aid in keeping
water levels high.

Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding, with localized
moderate flooding is possible for the more vulnerable spots of
southern Nassau, with advisories spread along the northwestern
and much of the southwestern LI Sound coastal zones. Advisories
are also in effect for this evening/night for Southern Queens,
Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Hudson in NE NJ.
Statements for tonight have also been issued for SW and SE
Mainly MVFR with showers possible. ENE G20kt.Suffolk as some
spots may touch minor benchmarks.

Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding is likely for
the Friday night high tide cycle. Given the persistence of the
forecast, E flow, and only slight decrease in astronomical tide
levels, have issued additional statements and advisories. An
advisory is now in effect for the south shore back bays, lower
NY Harbor, and western Sound along the SW CT and Westchester
coast. Statements have been issued for southern Suffolk, NW
Suffolk, N Nassau, and N Queens.

E flow continues into Saturday, but astronomical tide levels
begin to fall. The most vulnerable locations of the south shore
back bays could see another round of minor flooding with the
Saturday night high tide. Most other locations may just touch or
fall short.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ071-078.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ074-075-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ176-177.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-
     350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/JE
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC/BR
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...