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000
FXUS66 KOTX 142127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 PM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
There is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms over extreme
southeast Washington and the southern half of the Idaho Panhandle
on Sunday evening. A cold front will bring a return of cooler,
showery weather early this week. The front will bring breezy
conditions tonight through Monday. Warmer, dry weather expected
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday: An upper-level low near the Bay Area will
move inland, thanks to the trough off the northern BC coast. Highs
are peaking in the 70s, similar to mid-June averages. There`s a
slim chance (20% chance) of thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, mainly to the east of Lewiston and south of I-90 in
Idaho. These storms are capable of producing heavy rain but are
unlikely to produce severe weather. Winds will increase later
today, especially in Cascade gaps, ahead of a strong cold front
arriving overnight, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy
conditions for Monday. Patchy blowing dust is possible in the
Columbia Basin, and there`s a slight concern for fire weather due
to low humidity and gusty winds, particularly on Monday. If there
were widespread pre- greenup fuels, there might be some fire
concerns; however, the early spring has likely alleviated much of
that worry.

Following the passage of Monday`s cold front, snow levels will
sharply drop, raising the chance of light snowfall even down to
valley floors by Tuesday morning. However, little to no
accumulation is expected in lower elevations, and the likelihood
of significant snowfall in the mountains remains slim. Model
forecasts indicate a 30% chance of Stevens Pass receiving at least
4 inches of snow, while Snoqualmie has a 60% chance. Heavier
snowfall rates could cause minor travel disruptions, although road
temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to minimize
impacts. Tuesday is projected to be the chilliest day of the week,
with afternoon highs ranging from the low to mid-50s and a chance
of showers in the Cascades and Panhandle (30% chance). /Butler

Wednesday through Sunday: An exiting cold front continue to bring
some shower activity to the Idaho Panhandle and Southeast WA. It
will be mainly be a mountain snow and valley rain event. Amounts of
a few hundreths of an inch are expected. The North to South flow
pattern with the front will also bring breezy winds down the
northern valleys. Okanogan Valley is expected to see winds sustained
in the upper teens to low 20s mph range. Localized gusts into the
30s are possible, but probabilities are not to high on it as they
range from 20-25% for above 30 mph. Highs for Wednesday will be in
the 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s.

The rest of the period has a ridge building along the coast. Any
lingering showering activity will decrease through Thursday morning.
A dry, warming trend will last through Saturday. Models begin to
bring a Low into the region late Saturday and Sunday. For now, a
return of mountain showers is expected. Highs for the period will be
in the 60s and low 70s. Lows will be in the 30 to low 40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours with
thin high clouds. Cascade gap winds will increase in the
afternoon with a cold front approaching. KEAT will see sustained
northwest winds picking up to 15 to 20 knots after 00Z. There is a
10% chance of elevated thunderstorms from KLWS to Lookout Pass
starting at 22z this afternoon. Gusty west flow will persist
Monday after the front passage in the morning hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is low confidence thunderstorms will make it as far north as
KLWS/KPUW Sunday afternoon.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  61  35  52  32  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  43  58  34  49  32  52 /   0   0   0  30  20  20
Pullman        42  55  34  48  30  52 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Lewiston       48  64  40  55  36  58 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       41  66  32  53  32  56 /   0   0   0  20  20  20
Sandpoint      43  58  35  48  32  51 /   0  10  10  50  40  30
Kellogg        44  56  35  45  33  50 /  10   0   0  50  30  40
Moses Lake     44  66  36  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      47  61  37  55  36  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  66  34  57  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$