881
FXUS64 KOUN 070738
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
238 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

As this morning severe weather exits to the east and the overtaken
dryline/Pacific front pushes through, it will be quiet for the
remainder of the day.  Under sunny afternoon skies, we`ll see nearly
a repeater of yesterdays slightly warmer than average temperatures
although much less humid with a drier air mass in place. It will
feel slightly cooler tonight across our northern and western
Oklahoma tonight with lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Wednesday could bring a return of storms and severe weather but
would be restricted to our far southeastern CWA.  A persisting
closed upper low will be meandering over the U.S. Northern Plains
with a fairly large amplitude positively tilted trough over entire
western half of the U.S. ejecting a series of shortwaves eastward
across the Central & Southern Plains Regions.  Down at the surface,
this system will be pushing a surface low and Pacific cold front
across our area on Wednesday. Ahead of this frontal passage by
sunrise Wednesday, all models in good agreement with strong gulf
moisture transport into southeast Oklahoma with up to 70 degree
dewpoints creeping back in, perhaps enhanced by a strong southerly
low-level jet setting up Tuesday night with the maxima over the
eastern half of Oklahoma.  Certainly southeast Oklahoma could
potentially start rapidly destabilizing by late Wednesday morning
with strong (3000 J/kg) of SFC-based CAPE by early afternoon ahead
of the surface boundary while deep-layer shear would be strong
enough to maintain severe storm organization if they develop. Models
generally have the surface front nearly along the I-44 corridor
around noontime and pushing to the southeast where the surface low
will have settled in.  As a result, could see convection breaking
out along the front as it pushes into southeast Oklahoma with a
potential of all severe hazards.  One caveat to storm initiation
would inhibition based on the NAM solution and the ability of the
surface boundary breaking the cap while the GFS & ECMWF are nearly
uncapped prior to the frontal arrival. As a result, will maintain
low storm POPs in the grids for southeast Oklahoma during the
afternoon hours with a potential of severe storms initiating by
early afternoon.

Beyond Wednesday, we`ll stay in a dry pattern through much of
Saturday as another upper low closes off over the U.S. Southwest
which may "wetten" our forecast again by ejecting shortwaves
downstream across the Southern Plains starting Saturday night across
our western CWA to more widespread for Sunday into early next week.
So far not seeing any strong moisture return so the severe weather
risk looks low at this point.  As far as temperatures, we`ll see a
slight cooldown with temperature returning to seasonably average
and cooler each night in the 50s widespread across our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Thunderstorms will depart to the east of all TAF sites by the top
of the hour (06z). VFR conditions and generally light winds will
persist though this afternoon. MVFR CIGs may continue at KDUA,
before clearing around sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  63  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         84  57  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  84  65  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           85  51  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     81  57  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         85  66  86  61 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...WFO