Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261211
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
711 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few light showers are possible this morning, then dry
  conditions are expected this afternoon through the end of the
  work week.

- Temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal through
  Wednesday night, then a significant warming trend will begin
  Thursday, with well above normal temperatures by the weekend
  into Monday.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms return Friday night
  through the weekend, mainly for the northern half of the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The back edge of the rain will push east of our counties by 09z.
Based on the HRRR and the SREF, some additional light showers will
be possible through the morning hours as the cold front actually
moves through, especially across our northern and eastern counties.
The coverage will minimal, and any additional amounts will be light.

High pressure will build southeast out of the Northern Plains late
today through Wednesday, becoming centered over the lower
Mississippi Valley by Thursday. This will give our region north to
northwest winds through Wednesday night, shifting to the south to
southwest Thursday into Thursday night. The northwest flow will keep
our temperatures around 5 degrees below normal through Wednesday
night. Readings will moderate back to near seasonal readings
Thursday and Thursday night, then we will see a significant warming
trend begin Friday, continuing through the weekend into Monday.
High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be 7 to 15 degrees
above normal, with lows both nights and Monday 12 to 20 degrees
above normal.

A frontal boundary will set up north of our region Friday night and
linger in the vicinity through the weekend. This will bring on and
off chances of showers and thunderstorms to mainly our northern
half of counties Friday night into Sunday. By Sunday night into
Monday, the model blend sinks the front farther south,
spreading chances across the rest of our counties. There are
some model solutions that keep the front a little farther north
and reduce or even eliminate convection chances, so confidence
is not very high at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 711 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

MVFR cigs with occasional breaks to VFR are expected through the
morning. Predominant VFR cigs are expected this afternoon at
KOWB/KPAH, while MVFR cigs are expected to linger at KCGI/KMVN
and possibly KEVV most of the afternoon, gradually improving to
VFR and scattering out this evening. Winds will be out of the
southwest at 10 to 18 kts with some gusts of 25-30 kts,shifting
to the west to northwest and decreasing to 10 kts or less after
00z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST


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