Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 110911
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
411 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
  through this afternoon. Brief localized heavy rainfall is
  possible through midday, and some minor flooding or a strong
  storm cannot be ruled out completely.

- Strong northwest winds with gusts of 30 to possibly around 40
  mph at times may develop today, and it will be breezy on
  Friday.

- South to southwest breezes will bring dry conditions and well
  above normal temperatures for the weekend.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Monday afternoon
  and continue through next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A frontal boundary is set up along the Mississippi/Ohio/Wabash
Rivers with one of the low pressure areas focused over the Quad
State region. Decoupling overnight has kept the ESE to SSE winds
fairly light in the east, while northerlies in the west are up
to around 10 kts, which is also well below model projections.
The main rainmaking band from the evening is north of the
forecast area, but moisture continues to stream in with
widespread showers and a few isolated lightning flashes. More
organized thunderstorm development has not materialized and
strong storms are unlikely through the early morning hours.
Winds should continue to be well skewed to the low end of the
HREF spread through early morning. Rainfall has become lighter
relative to the evening hours so flooding potential is fairly
low.

Once daytime heating begins, the boundary layer should mix out
fairly quickly, prompting significant increases in wind speeds
and gusts as the low pressure quickly deepens. Models continue
to point to Southeast Missouri as the most favorable location
for wind gusts reaching 40 mph, and many HREF members show that
with 80% of members > 40 mph (although, this is slightly lower
than the previous model cycle). The timing isn`t ideal, with the
gustiest winds in SEMO projected to be mid-morning. The models
are likely overestimating winds. The SPS has been expanded over
the entire forecast area, with 35-40 mph gusts in SEMO and 30-35
mph gusts in the east with timing staggered from west to east.
The morning strengthening of winds will be monitored for
potential need for a wind advisory. A little more lightning
development is possible with surface heating though flooding and
strong storm potential decreases in the afternoon as the system
begins exiting the area.

Lingering light precipitation chances Friday just northeast of
the forecast area might suggest possible slight chance PoP
inclusion but no rain impacts are expected. Breezy winds Friday
will remain with gusts of 25-35 mph. Continued WNW winds keeps
highs in the 60s for the end of the week with lows in the 40s.
Dry conditions continue through the weekend with ridging moving
through and high pressure across the Deep South. A switchover to
SSW flow lifts highs to the 70s Saturday and near 80 on Sunday.

Ensembles agree generally on low pressure developing east of the
Rockies early next week, lifting northeastward to the Upper
Midwest. While the SPC Day 6 enhanced outlook in Oklahoma draws
attention, the variation among ensemble members for positioning
of the track keeps conditions somewhat uncertain locally. The
NBM was notably very strong with regards to Tuesday winds,
which were shifted lower by blending in the NBMEXP in
collaboration with neighbors. Chance PoPs are included Monday
evening through Wednesday as a result of that primary system and
a potential second one developing midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Main concerns are strong winds and low cigs. Showers and storms
will be moving through the area tonight and tomorrow and could
be prolific rainfall producers, which could lower visbys at
times. With this comes lower cigs as well, MVFR is forecast
currently but wouldn`t be surprised if IFR cigs happen and an
amendment is needed. Tomorrows winds will be out of the
northwest and on the gusty side with a 60-80% chance of gusts
over 25 kts by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SHAWKEY


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