NOAA

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Buffalo, NY

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

000
FXUS65 KPIH 191004
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
404 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday.
Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the
region, although mid-level and high clouds will increase during
the afternoon. We have added light PoPs to the forecast for this
afternoon and evening as high resolution models continue to show
isolated showers across the northern extent of the central
mountains and along a portion of the MT Divide. Accumulating snow
is only expected along the highest peaks though, where up to one
inch will fall through early Saturday. Daytime highs today will
run several degrees warmer than the previous couple of days,
falling around five degrees or less short of climatological norms.
Tomorrow will be noticeably warmer across the region as high
pressure builds in and high temperatures increase by another ten
degrees, give or take. Temperatures will run on the warm side of
normal with the eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain warming into
the 60s and 40s and 50s in the higher terrain. Cropp

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.
Deterministic models show a closed low passing to our north
across Canada on Sunday. At this time, the most impactful factor
looks to be the breezy to windy conditions as zonal flow
establishes over Southern Idaho. A Wind Advisory may be needed for
the Snake Plain and potentially the eastern Magic Valley.
Otherwise, we continue to carry low-end PoPs across the eastern
highlands as the system shifts eastward. Models continue to handle
the Monday timeframe a bit differently with subsequent runs and
therefore uncertainty remains if a transient ridge will begin to
build in Monday or later into Tuesday. Either way, a prolonged or
shorter period of low precipitation chances across the high
terrain near the ID-MT border and changes in temperatures would be
the only notable differences. Impacts increase as we head deeper
into the extended timeframe. The next potent low will approach the
US-Canadian border on Tuesday, with models showing it moving
onshore on Wednesday, slightly later than previous model runs.
Winds will increase across much of the region and precipitation
chances will become widespread late week, with Thursday and Friday
being the wettest days. Widespread daytime temperatures in the
40s to 60s will mean mostly rain across the CWA, although
precipitation will fall as snow in the mountains as temperatures
drop into the 20s and 30s overnight. Cropp


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions forecast throughout the period. Mostly
clear skies are currently observed over all terminals, with FEW
to SCT mid-level and high clouds forecast to increase beginning
this afternoon. Isolated showers are forecast across the central
mountains but expected to remain north of KSUN. Partial clearing
is expected overnight and early Friday ahead of the next round of
high clouds Saturday afternoon. Winds will remain light throughout
the period, generally remaining 8 kts or less. Cropp



&&

.HYDROLOGY...Water levels on the Portneuf river continue to run
high, just below moderate flood stage for the Portneuf river in
Pocatello. The river forecast for the Portneuf river in Pocatello
shows the river running above flood stage for the foreseeable
future. At Topaz, levels remain and are forecast to remain very
near minor flood stage for the rest of the week. McKaughan


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$