Text Products for ESF Issued by PUB

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
0145 PM MDT Tue April 9, 2024

...Water Supply Outlook for Southeast and South-Central Colorado
as of April 1, 2024...

The month of March brought additional, beneficial precipitation
to the mountains of southeast and south-central Colorado with 186
percent of normal precipitation observed for the Arkansas River
Basin and 176 percent of normal precipitation observed for the
Rio Grande Basin. While a few locations in the Arkansas River and
Rio Grande Basins saw slightly below normal precipiation, mostly
above normal precipitation led to continued improvement in mountain
snowpack conditions by the end of March. Water Year-to-date
precipitation, as of April 1, 2024, was above normal at 115 percent
for the mountains of the Arkansas River Basin and near normal at 98
percent for the mountains of the Rio Grande Basin.

Water Year-to-date mountain snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE),
as of April 1, 2024, was trending at 117 percent of normal for
the Arkansas River Basin and 106 percent of normal for the Rio
Grande Basin. The Rio Grande Basin continued its trend of month-
over-month improvement from 86 percent of normal snowpack SWE on
March 1, 2024 and only 66 percent of normal snowpack SWE on February
1, 2024. Mountain snowpack SWE for Colorado is at or near its typical
peak for the accumulation season. Snowpack SWE is currently at or
above nornmal at individual SNOTEL stations in the Sawatch Range
along the Continental Divide. Snowpack SWE at SNOTEL stations in the
La Garita and San Juan Mountains are now trending at above or well
above normal while a larger spread of conditions, ranging from 90 to
120 percent of normal, are found at SNOTEL stations in the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains. Mountain snowpack SWE for the Pikes Peak Region
and Wet Mountains continues to trend over 200 percent of normal.

For the Arkansas River Basin, the above normal precipitation observed
for the month of March has led to continued improvement to the
streamflow volume forecasts for the upcoming runoff season. Forecast
locations in the upper Arkansas River Valley continue to trend more
favorably due to better snowpack and soil moisture conditions compared
to forecast locations for drainages along the east slope of the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains. The following are the latest available seasonal
runoff forecasts for selected locations in the Arkansas River Basin
assuming normal precipitation through the snowmelt season:

Location                   % of Normal     Runoff Period

Arkansas River
  Granite                       103            Apr-Sep
  Salida                        102            Apr-Sep
  Canon City                    101            Apr-Sep
  Above Pueblo                  101            Apr-Sep
Chalk Creek
  Near Nathrop                  108            Apr-Sep
Grape Creek
  Near Westcliffe                 74            Apr-Sep
Huerfano River
  Near Redwing                   82            Apr-Sep
Cucharas River
  Near La Veta                   88            Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Trinidad                       76            Apr-Sep

These forecasts reflect natural runoff only. Actual observed runoff
will likely be affected by upstream water management.

The forecasts below are for two locations on the southeast Colorado
plains in the lower part of the Arkansas River Basin. These forecasts
include projected upstream water management that is expected to
impact streamflow.

Arkansas River
  Las Animas                     103           Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Las Animas                      83           Apr-Sep

For the Rio Grande Basin, continued widespread improvement to the
streamflow volume forecasts for the upcoming runoff season occured
due to benefical, above normal precipitation observed across the
basin over the month of March. Foecasts at individual locations on
the west side of the San Luis Valley, for drainages of the eastern
San Juan Mountains, are trending above 90 percent of normal with the
most month-over-month improvement observed for the Saguache subbasin
draining from the La Garita Mountains. Widespread improvement also
was observed for all locations along the east side of the San Luis
Valley, for drainages of the west slope of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Runoff projections for most locations are trending closer
to normal above 90 percent while the Costilla subbasin remains below
normal in the 65 to 75 percent range. Mostly below normal seasonal
runoff projections are still influenced by persistent drought and soil
moisture deficits throughout the Rio Grande Basin, but slow and steady
improvment in hydrologic conditions continues to occur heading into the
runoff season. The following are the latest available seasonal runoff
forecasts for selected locations in the Rio Grande Basin assuming normal
precipitation through the snowmelt season:

Location                   % of Normal     Runoff Period

 Rio Grande River
  Thirty Mile Bridge             94           Apr-Sep
  Wagon Wheel Gap                96           Apr-Sep
  Near Del Norte                 93           Apr-Sep
  Near Lobatos                   92           Apr-Jul
South Fork Rio Grande River
  South Fork                     91           Apr-Sep
Saguache Creek
  Near Saguache                 125           Apr-Sep
Alamosa Creek
  Terrace Reservoir Inflow        92           Apr-Sep
La Jara Creek
  Near Capulin                   93           Apr-Jul
Conejos River
  Platoro Reservoir Inflow        93           Apr-Sep
  Near Mogote                    99           Apr-Sep
San Antonio River
  Ortiz                          99           Apr-Sep
Los Pinos River
  Ortiz                          92           Apr-Sep
Ute Creek
  Near Fort Garland              84           Apr-Sep
Sangre de Cristo Creek
  Near Fort Garland              96           Apr-Sep
Trinchera Creek
  Above Turners Ranch            89           Apr-Sep
Costilla Creek
  Costilla Reservoir Inflow       75           Apr-Jul
  Near Costilla                  67           Apr-Jul
Culebra Creek
  San Luis                       99           Apr-Sep


This outlook is based on recent observations of snowpack and assumes
normal precipitation for the upcoming snowmelt season. If the actual
observed precipitation deviates from normal, then the actual observed
runoff will likely be different than the forecasts presented in this
outlook. This is the fourth of six scheduled outlooks for the 2024
runoff season.

Users of this product are encouraged to contact the National Weather
Service in Pueblo for continued updates on the water supply
situation. Meteorological conditions could develop that would have
a significant impact on water supply forecasts.

For additional hydrologic products available on the world wide web,
visit the Pueblo National Weather Service web site at:

weather.gov/pub.

Or visit the NWS River Forecast Centers or NRCS that provide daily
and monthly water supply forecasts at:

cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/graph/west/map/esp_map.html

nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/waterSupply

This message is the result of the collaboration between the National
Weather Service and the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

JML
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
