Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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157 FXUS65 KRIW 100711 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 111 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated storms ending later this afternoon. - Most locations should have a mostly clear sky tonight for the possible appearance of the northern lights. - Only isolated showers and storms with mild to warm temperatures this weekend. - More active early next week with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 It seems like some meteorologists have the worst luck. It was off for three days earlier this week. And, as an avid golfer, I wanted to go out and hit the links. Well, Monday through Wednesday was way too windy to get out there. And now that I have to work, we will have a few nice days to golf. Just my luck. There will be one last shortwave rotating through the area today, and this will bring another chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The difference will be that coverage should be less, only 2 out of 5 at best with the exception of the mountains. And, showers should end from north to south through the day. Wind will still be gusty in the south, but less so across the north. And then it will clear from north to south through the day and and into the night. And sky cover will be critical tonight. The reason is, we have the potential for one of a really good display of the northern lights tonight. Out colleagues at the Space Weather Prediction Center have a watch for a G4 storm, the first watch like this in 19 years. Space weather can be fickle but the potential is definitely there. And, for most of the area the news for sky cover is good as ridging builds across the area. The sky should be mostly clear, especially across northern portions of the area. It will be slower to clear across the south and west though, But even here, clouds should then through the night. And, with the expected maximum display expected after midnight, the sky should continue to clear. Stay tuned for updates though. If you want details, we will have a video on social media around 6 am this morning. The weekend for the most part looks very nice. Saturday looks like the best day as ridging moves into the area. There will be just enough instability for an isolated shower or thunderstorm roughly from Interstate 80 and south, but even here the chance is less than 1 in 4. Most other locations will have a nice Spring day with mild temperatures and light to moderate wind. Sunday looks a bit more active as a weak shortwave brushes by to the east. This will increase the coverage of diurnal convection. Most areas will again have less than 1 in 4 chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but the chance will be a bit higher in Natrona and Johnson Counties. But even in areas that get one, a vast majority of the day will be dry. Things then turn more active for the first part of next week as a couple of cold front and troughs move across the state. The first moves through Monday and brings a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area, with decent model consensus for the northern half of the state to see the greater coverage. The timing of the second is more uncertain, with a 12 to 24 hour spread in guidance. For now, we went with mainly chance POPS and tried not to pinpoint an area this far out. Temperatures will warm ahead of the front, with some locations in the 80s before cooling for Tuesday and Wednesday. The late week shows ridging building in with drier conditions and warm temperatures returning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1039 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals Prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period as the persistent weather system begins to exit the area. Isolated showers are possible at KRKS through Friday afternoon, but too low of a chance (20%) for a prevailing -SHRA group. Wind will remain strong at KRKS through Friday afternoon from the northeast, with gusts to 30 knots by 12Z. At KJAC the predominant wind direction will be northerly right around 10 knots through the TAF period. Scattered mountain obscuration will occur. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals The persistent weather system continues to influence the weather conditions through Friday afternoon, but it will slowly exit the area leading to lesser impacts on Friday. An area of -SHRA is approaching KLND and should impact the terminal until 08Z, with a lowering in clouds to MVFR once it passes. Isolated -SHRA remain possible (30%) at KLND through Friday morning. Improvement to VFR will occur by Friday afternoon as CIGS rise. Isolated -SHRA remain in the vicinity of KCPR tonight and become more scattered by 10Z/Fri as CIGS drop to IFR until 15Z/Fri. By that time improvement to VFR will occur. Other terminals will remain mostly dry and VFR, although an isolated -SHRA is possible (20%) through Friday afternoon. Wind will become light tonight, mainly from the north/northeast. Mountain obscuration will persist along the eastern slopes of mountain ranges as easterly upslope flow persists through Friday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Rowe