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000
FXUS61 KRLX 181620
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1220 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today. Another round of showers and storms Friday with a
cold front. Cooler this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1216 PM Thursday...

Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft
temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early
Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front.
Winds will pick up towards early Friday with approach of this
system. With the storms, widespread severe is not anticipated,
but depending on timing of front and convective development, an
isolated strong storm cannot be completely ruled out across the
south and east, but overall, the front should be through most
locations by peak heating, thus limiting overall instability and
severe potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

Upper level low pressure transiting the Upper Great Lakes drags a
cold front through the region Friday morning through early
afternoon. Ahead of this feature, expect remnant convection from
overnight activity out to the west charging eastward and weakening.
Even the more bullish models have backed off on the magnitude of
conditional instability available with this feature, with the mean
now down toward 500J/kg effective CAPE. Kinematic fields will be
modestly strong with deep layer shear around 35KT and 0-1km SRH 100-
150m2/s2, so couldn`t completely rule out a stronger storm
persisting from the west despite movement into a less unstable
environment. Actual frontal passage then occurs during the day with
an additional line of relatively weak showers or perhaps a
thunderstorms possible through early Friday afternoon until the
front sweeps east. Rainfall amounts will be relatively light,
perhaps a tenth to a quarter inch basin average with any more
persistent convection yielding perhaps half to one inch of quick
and isolated accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

Mainly dry and cooler conditions are expected through the weekend in
the wake of cold frontal passage with slightly below normal
temperatures. With remnant tropical moisture just off to the south,
couldn`t completely rule out some diurnal showers over the mountains
Sunday, but chances are low. Some marginal frost conditions could
develop across the north for Sunday morning or Monday morning and
with the growing season now started, highlights may be warranted.

An active northern stream with very cold air parked north of the
Great Lakes keeps temperatures around normal through the balance of
the period. The next chance for precipitation comes with increasing
southwesterly flow Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 543 AM Thursday...

Some MVFR clouds along the mountains and some patchy fog where
rain fell yesterday will give way to VFR conditions by mid
morning. The VFR conditions should then persist through the
evening hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight
from the west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with fog dissipation.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipation could vary.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Spotty IFR possible along the mountains on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY