429
FXUS61 KRLX 291053
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
653 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains through today keeping conditions mostly
dry with hot, summerlike temperatures this afternoon. A cold
front approaches from the west Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

Updated temperatures and dewpoints to match obs. Most locations
have decoupled quite a bit this morning allowing lows in the
50s across the area. Temperatures will quickly warm up this
morning with sunrise.

As of 200 AM Monday...

Azores high pressure off the coast to our SE will continue to
extend a ridge over the area through the day. Mild temperatures
are expected this morning with most locations cooling off into
the 50s and lower 60s. Spotty fog will likely form across the
southern coalfields and mountains due to strong decoupling
across these areas.

Today`s temperatures will progress from a cool spring morning
to more of a parching July afternoon: The lowlands will see
highs in the mid to high 80s, approaching record territory in
some spots; while the mountains will remain in the 70s and lower
80s. Some models think that temperatures will be 3-5 degrees
warmer, which would be achievable if our trees were not mostly
green (more water content to allow cooling) and if a high
pressure center were directly overhead to decouple the area.

Mostly dry through the afternoon with scattered CU fields
popping up during peak heating hours, a remote afternoon shower
or storm cannot be ruled out due to the diurnal heating, but
chances for this are rather low. SSW winds gradually increasing
from calm to a light breeze by late afternoon. Drier air will
mix down as a result allowing for RH percentages in the 30s this
afternoon areawide. Winds look to be light enough to keep fire
weather concerns to a minimum. Plus, fuel moistures are starting
to recover well enough this morning to create a decent buffer
going into the afternoon when the driest conditions will exist.

Cold front will approach from the west late tonight into early
Tuesday, which will be marked with increasingly cloudy skies
tonight and rain/isolated thunderstorms along our western flank
by Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Monday...

A southern stream short wave trough pushes a weakening surface
cold front across the area Tuesday. This brings clouds, showers
and a few thunderstorms into the area from west to east during
the morning and midday hours. This limits the opportunity for
heating to eastern portions of the area, but CAPE up to a KJ/kg
could still be realized in the moist air mass, in which PW
values climb as high as 1.4 in.

Modest deep layer flow/bulk shear coupled with midday and
afternoon instability could support strong, heavy
thunderstorms, but severe weather is not anticipated.

The southwest flow through a deep layer roughly parallel to the
front could support training of thunderstorms, which could lead
to locally heavy rainfall amounts. The flow also diminishes
late in the day, slowing storm motion for a narrow window of
opportunity for slower storm motion contributing to locally
heavy rainfall as well, before the cold front crosses and the
column starts to dry from west to east.

Dead low level flow in the wake of the weak system is likely to
lead to areas of fog and stratus overnight into Wednesday
morning, but the moist layer should be shallow enough to mix
through during the day.

High pressure Wednesday gives way to a return south to southwest
flow Thursday, continuing the dry weather. Areas of fog and
especially stratus will be less Wednesday night and even less
if any Thursday night, with the intervening days of drying and
the return low level flow, albeit light.

Central guidance reflects lowland temperatures in the 70s much
of if not all of the day Tuesday, with highs earliest west.
Temperatures top out in the lower 80s across the lowlands
Wednesday, before returning to the mid to upper 80s on Thursday,
Lows will be in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday nights, before
returning to around 60s across th lowlands Thursday night.
Overall, above normal temperatures prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM Monday...

The area resides in unseasonably warm air Friday, before a cold
front crosses Friday night into Saturday. Its driving mid-
upper level short wave trough and parent surface low lift well
up into Canada, so heights barely drop if at all, and the front
may get bogged down or even wash out over the area on Saturday.
Another southern stream short wave trough may approach Sunday,
with the chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms.

Central guidance reflects a hot Friday and warm Friday night.
Temperatures then settle a little but remain above normal over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...

VFR conditions through the period under mostly clear skies with
either calm or light SSW winds. EKN is reporting fog which is
causing VIS fluctuations. VFR will resume by ~13Z after
sunrise. Winds may gust between 13-16kts at times from ~16-22Z
due to mixing ,but this will mostly be observed at the western
sites of HTS, PKB and any smaller terminals across SE Ohio.

A front will approach from the west tonight bringing with it
lowering CIGs and some showers/thunderstorms by ~12Z Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR at EKN may
vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...LTC