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000
FXUS61 KRNK 241717
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
117 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses our region today with scattered showers
mainly across the mountains. Temperatures remain a few degrees
either side of normal through the week with high pressure
returning behind the front. Sunday through Tuesday look
especially warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Clouds are clearing this afternoon with only a few rain showers
remaining over Southside Virginia and north-central North
Carolina. This rain is associated with the passage of a surface
front that is expected to continue east through tonight. Another
reinforcing front is current over the southern Ohio Valley and
will push across the area tonight, bringing a stronger push of
drier air. No precipitation is expected with this second front.


High pressure builds over the Great Lakes through Thursday and
will extend south over our region bringing abundant sunshine
and light winds for Thursday. High temperatures at or just
slightly below normal.

Temperatures tonight will be chilly in the 40s and possibly some
upper 30s for the mountains. Depending on if skies can clear and
winds can go calm, could have a few sheltered areas drop into
mid/lower 30s with the potential for isolated areas of frost.
However, confidence with this is rather low.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather on Thursday.

2) A chance of showers exists in the mountains on Friday, while
high pressure wedges against the eastern slopes of the Blue
Ridge.

Surface high pressure centered over Lake Ontario will provide
dry weather for the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. As the high
moves eastward by Thursday night, it will wedge against the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. A cooler easterly flow should
keep temperatures lower on Friday compared to Thursday.
Meanwhile, a warm front will head northward along the western
periphery of the wedge and spark a low chance of showers in the
mountains for Friday and Friday night. By Saturday, the warm
front should head towards the Great Lakes, and high pressure
should drift off the East Coast. The flow will turn to the
southeast, which would increase moisture and keep occasional
cloudiness lingering throughout the day. Temperatures should
tick upward on Saturday despite the cloudiness as an upper level
ridge builds aloft and warm air advection at the surface
increases.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend during early next
week.

2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase by late
Monday into Tuesday from an approaching cold front.

With the Mid Atlantic now firmly in the warm sector by Sunday, a
southerly flow will erode the lingering wedge of high pressure
east of the Blue Ridge. A strong upper level ridge overhead and
notable warm air advection at the surface will boost
temperatures above normal to start the new week. The warmest day
in this forecast period occurs on Monday when high temperatures
could reach the mid 70s to the mid 80s, which is about ten to
fifteen degrees above normal for late April. As a consequence of
this increasing heat and a low pressure system approaching from
the west, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will climb by
Monday afternoon and evening in the mountains and eventually
spread eastward towards Tuesday. The frontal passage might not
take place until Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Generally VFR across the region now that clouds have begun to
gradually clear. Some pockets of MVFR cigs still remaining over
the mountains, but should see this improve over the next few
hours.

Winds remain gusty through this evening from the northwest,
gusting into the 20kt to occasionally 25kts at times. Highest
winds will be in the mountains. Winds go light/calm overnight
and remain light through tomorrow.

VFR expected tonight through tomorrow outside of a chance of
some fog formation from BLF to LWB. Confidence is on the lower
side on potential fog formation, but still mentioned it for a
few hours near daybreak at LWB and BLF.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

A warm front approaches Friday, and although VFR conditions
remain, but could start to see sub-VFR toward LWB/BLF Friday
into Saturday. -SHRA looks unlikely outside of sprinkles during
this time for BLF. Sunday will be VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG