Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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462 FXUS63 KSGF 070944 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 444 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms expected on Wednesday, with severe potential from early morning through the evening. Exact hazards remains in question, but very large hail, damaging, and tornadoes are possible. SPC has a hatched Enhanced Risk (3/5) for most of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 With storms exiting the area this morning and no hazardous weather expected for the rest of today through at least most of tonight, attention is on severe chances for Wednesday with the SPC hatched Enhanced day 2 outlook. Larger pattern: The overall setup is that a shortwave will move northwest of the area tonight into Wednesday, leading to a surface low developing over Oklahoma tonight then shifting through the western CWA Wednesday morning and into northern Missouri by Wednesday evening. This is farther south than models showed 24 hours ago, which results in some important changes. Notably that shear profiles are more supportive of a tornado threat, but that will be highly dependent on convective evolution through the day. Mesoscale: A 40-60 kt LLJ will shift east into the southwestern CWA by sunrise Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts into the area. The LLJ will weaken as it slowly shifts east through the day, but strong wind fields associated with the mid-level jet will keep shear strong through the day. The warm front will shift north through the area with a cold front then pushing in from the west in the afternoon and evening. Models show instability increasing very quickly behind the warm front as moisture surges into the area and steep mid-level lapse rates evolve. By mid to late morning, guidance shows 2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE with little CIN. For the afternoon, very high instability levels of 2,500-3,500 J/kg (MLCAPE), with some guidance pointing to over 4,000 J/kg. Toughest part of this forecast revolves around uncertainty with storm evolution and resulting unknowns with storm mode and mesoscale changes. Think storms will develop in the morning over the west and may transit east across the area into the afternoon. Greatest concerns with these would be along the warm front where a tornado threat would be higher. Additional storms may form along the cold front in the afternoon and evening, with a very large hail risk. Depending on storm mode and environment, hail up to the size of baseballs could be possible, but more details are needing to be ironed out on that threat. Damaging winds up to 70 mph are possible with any upscale growth in the afternoon and evening. Overall a pretty complex forecast. Flooding will also be a concern on Wednesday where training convection occurs, but the location of that threat is unknown at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Weather is relatively quiet Thursday through Monday with little to no chances for precip. Temperatures look to be cooler, but near normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Gusty southeasterly winds will continue this evening, some MVFR ceilings could occur, but mainly VFR conditions will occur. A few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorms may be possible this evening but most locations will remain dry through 9PM. Storms have developed across central Oklahoma and Kansas early this evening. These storms will continue to move east and developing into a line or lines of storms. This activity will move into the area western portions of the area late this evening and through the rest of the area overnight. These storms will have the potential for damaging winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy rain. IFR to LIFR conditions will occur with the storms. The storms will move east from west to east overnight into early Tuesday morning. Winds will turn to more southwesterly behind the storms and remain gusty on Tuesday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Wise