425
FXUS63 KSGF 151818
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
118 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms likely overnight through Thursday
  morning (60-90% chance). A slight risk for a few severe storms
  overnight west of I-49. Marginal risk for severe storms across
  the area Thursday. Additional rain chances Thursday night
  through Friday (60-90% chance).

- Total rainfall amounts tonight through Friday range between
  0.5 to 2 inches with the highest totals west of Springfield.
  Localized flooding may occur across the area.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early
  next week with near record temperatures Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and
upper air analysis shows the area in a weak mid level ridge
within an overall active pattern with several shortwaves across
the northern and western US. Remnant showers from overnight
activity across Kansas and Oklahoma has attempted to push into
the area from the west this morning however drier/stable air
in the mid levels (as seen on the 12z KSGF sounding) has
evaporated most of this activity. Low level moisture remains
present with dews around 60 and scattered cumulus across the
area. Temps have climbed into the lower 70s across the area.

This afternoon through the evening: Have inserted some low
precip chances (10-20 percent) west of Springfield for this
afternoon to account for the weakening precip. Otherwise a
pleasant afternoon and evening is expected.

Overnight into Thursday: As shortwave energy ejects into Kansas
this evening, it will interact with a frontal boundary and an
increasing low level jet to develop a cluster or two of
thunderstorms across the southern half of Kansas (especially
near the Wichita area). These storms will likely be severe given
the favorable CAPE/Shear combination. Latest HREF data shows an
elevated MU CAPE gradient from roughly Wichita to Joplin to
northwest Arkansas with much lower instability north of this
line. Therefore this complex of thunderstorms will likely move
into southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri after 10pm
along/near this gradient. This cluster of storms will be
capable of producing damaging winds and hail up to the size of
quarters, especially west of I-49. Most high res guidance
suggests an overall weakening trend as these storms move east,
away from the higher instability that will remain south of the
area. However sometimes models weaken these storms too quickly
if they have a well established cold pool therefore areas
between I-49 and Highway 65 will still need to monitor these
storms after midnight.

Latest HREF precip amounts for overnight into early Thursday
morning shows that far southeast Kansas and far southwest
Missouri may pick up a quick 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with
this cluster of storms. This could produce localized flooding
given recent rains.

Going into Thursday morning, models are trending toward a
solution where the morning cluster of storms will be weakening
with an embedded MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) and
attendant outflow boundary moving through the area. Therefore
highest rain chances are in the morning with this feature.
Typically once an MCV moves through there is a time period of
subsidence/inhibition therefore thunderstorm development in the
afternoon is uncertain and will be tied to the exact location of
the remnant MCV. The airmass does appear to become unstable
during the afternoon therefore any remaining lift could set off
isolated to scattered storms. Currently the highest chances for
this are along and south of a Branson to Rolla line with large
hail and damaging winds if any storms can develop. Have kept
precip chances around 30 percent for areas further northwest
incase any other development occurs. High temps will be variable
depending on clouds however most areas should warm into the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Thursday Night - Friday: A low level jet will develop south of
the area with showers and thunderstorms developing across
northern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas. This is also due to a
upper level low moving through Oklahoma. Southern Missouri looks
to be on the north side of this rain shield overnight into
Friday morning with rain chances in the 60-80% range. While no
severe weather is expected with this activity, there will be
pockets of locally heavy rainfall as PW values reach 1.5in.
Therefore localized flooding is a concern south of I-44. Latest
trends have also slowed down this upper low as it moves into
Arkansas therefore rain chances look to persist through most of
Friday with some decrease by the evening hours. Clouds and
precip will likely keep temps down further on Friday and may
have to knock down temps further in later updates. Rainfall
amounts on Friday look to remain less than an inch as it will be
more showery in nature.

The Weekend: Ensembles are in good agreement that mid level
height rises and warmer air aloft will move into the area. 850mb
temps look to climb into the 18-22C range by Sunday. Latest NBM
data suggests lower 80s for highs Saturday with middle 80s on
Sunday. Precip chances over the weekend look to remain less than
20 percent.

Next Week: Even warmer air aloft looks to move in as the ridge
builds further into the area. There is the potential for near
record high temps on Monday as 850mb temps reach 21-23C. NBM
percentiles continue show the potential for locations to reach
90 on Monday depending on cloud cover. See climate section
below for details. By Tuesday and Wednesday, shortwave energy
will be approaching the central US which will break down the
ridge and allow for thunderstorm chances to return. There is
still a decent amount of model variability however EURO EFI
Shift of Tails tool, CIPS analogs and CSU Machine Learning
guidance suggests a pattern conducive to severe weather
somewhere across the central US therefore another active pattern
may emerge by the middle of next week.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Conditions should continue to improve into VFR for this
afternoon and evening with light and variable winds. There are a
few showers approaching JLN however confidence remains low and
will not include in the TAF at this time. Higher chances for
showers returns overnight, lasting through Thursday morning.
Highest chances for thunder are at JLN and included a group for
them. Rain chances decrease towards the end of the TAF period
so went with vicinity for at that time. Winds will begin to
switch to the southwest during the day Thursday. Flight
conditions will likely drop into MVFR Thursday morning and may
persist through the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

May 21:
KSGF: 91/1987
KJLN: 91/1987


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 71/1902

May 21:
KSGF: 70/1902

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield