710
FXUS66 KSGX 271640
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
940 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warming conditions expected this weekend into early next
week. Many areas will have to near to slightly above average
temperatures Sunday through early next week. The marine layer will
be shallower, with night and morning low clouds and patchy fog more
confined to coastal areas. There is some uncertainty in the forecast
for the latter half of the week, but dry conditions are expected
with a potential for widespread above average temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the weekend with
weaker winds and sunnier skies for much of Southern California.
Northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures at bay today, though a
bit warmer than Friday`s temperatures. Higher pressure aloft is
expected into early next week, which will bring temperatures to near
to slightly above average for Sunday through Tuesday. Highs in the
upper 60s expected near the coast, with highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s in the valleys, and highs in the 90s in the lower deserts.

Winds today are expected to be weaker than what was observed for the
end of the work week. The backside of the trough will still be close
enough to Southern California today to enhance the onshore pressure
gradient and afternoon sea breeze. West to northwest winds across
mountains and deserts will have peak gusts of 25-40 MPH. Winds will
be slightly higher through the San Gorgonio Pass this afternoon and
evening, with local gusts up to 55 mph possible. Winds will continue
to weaken into Sunday and early next week as weak high pressure
aloft prevails.

A trough of low pressure aloft is expected to move across the
Intermountain West Wednesday, further weakening the already weak
high pressure over California. This will mean a few degrees of
cooling for most areas on Wednesday. For Thursday and Friday there
remains some disagreement amongst global models on how quickly
high pressure aloft will build over the West Coast in the wake of
the aforementioned trough. About a quarter of the global ensemble
solutions have a ridge building over the West Coast for Thursday
and Friday. While the other solutions are more in favor of
additional troughing, the majority of those solutions are
indicating conditions will remain dry into next weekend. Current
forecast follows the NBM with warming conditions into next
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
271525Z...Coast/Valleys/Mountains..BKN-SCT 020-040 with tops 6500
feet through 18Z. Mountains obscd in clouds and fog at times.
Gradual clearing from the northwest through 19Z.

Deserts...Mostly clear with gusty northwest winds 20-40 kt
decreasing this morning. Gusty desert winds of 20-30 kts returning
this afternoon. Confidence in TAF forecast of mainly SCT low clouds
at KSAN is moderate to high.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 11 AM today for strong
northwest winds of 20-30 kt and a short-period wind swell of 6
seconds that will produce hazardous boating conditions, especially
beyond 15 nautical miles from shore.

Winds and seas subside today. Lighter winds and seas are forecast
Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Elevated surf from a short-period wind swell on exposed west-facing
beaches. Surf and swell will gradually subside today.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM PDT this morning for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to
     60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Small