Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
000
FXUS64 KSHV 140001
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Our ongoing string of quiet weather days will continue through the
remainder of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Upper
level ridging, more or less directly overhead this afternoon,
keeping subsidence in place before upper level flow begins to
flatten out somewhat, with a weak disturbance emerging over the
upper plains and pseudo-zonal flow overhead for the Four State
Region.
Ultimately, no major changes to the rest of the weekend`s forecast,
which will be dominated by mostly sunny skies, with another mostly
clear afternoon and scattered clouds increasing overnight. The
ridging overhead and increasing southerly winds will enhance our now
well-established warming trend, with highs soaring back into the low
to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon. Lows will likewise see a warming
trend, dropping only into the upper 50s tonight, with more 60s
tomorrow night.
/26/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
The amplifying ridge over the Front Range ahead of a deepening
trough over the Pacific Coast ridge will drift eastward over the
Plains late Sunday and overnight into Monday, quickly trekking
across the Four State Region and passing on to our east by Monday
afternoon.
Very little has changed in terms of the position and timing of the
storms and possible severe weather. Following on the heels of
this weekend`s ridge, the deep trough and its closed low will push
across the Intermountain West Monday, crossing the Plains in time
to swing a surface cold front and attendant storm system into the
ArkLaTex overnight Monday into the early hours of Tuesday. As of
this writing, storms do not look to enter our northwesternmost
zones until after 00Z Tuesday at the earliest, becoming more
widespread to the south and east as dawn approaches, overspreading
the majority of the reason by Tuesday afternoon before departing
to the north and east Tuesday evening.
Much of the ArkLaTex along and north of the I-20 corridor, now
including more of east Texas, remains in a 15% outlook for severe
thunderstorms with the Tuesday system. It remains too early at this
time to confidently speculate on potential modes of severe weather.
For now, all modes should be considered possible, along with the
potential for further flash flooding in areas which remain saturated
with still-swollen creeks and rivers. Only the southern Arkansas
zones of the ArkLaTex are currently outlooked in the Excessive
Rainfall Outlook, but given the recent days of flooding rains, it
will not take much additional rainfall to cause potential hazards.
The next update to the D4-8 severe weather outlook will be issued
overnight tonight.
Behind Tuesday`s trough, pseudo-zonal flow will dominate the upper
level pattern for the ArkLaTex Wednesday, on which some weaker
disturbances will ride in, bringing a return of showers and storms
late in the week, making for an unsettled end of this extended
forecast period, followed by a cold front which may be deep enough
to break the sustained trend of 80 degree afternoons which will
continue throughout next week, with morning lows generally in the
60s throughout.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
For the 14/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions will continue through
the evening and much of the overnight period with just some thin
cirrus south of I-20. As daybreak approaches, some MVFR cigs will
develop and expand NE across parts of East TX through the morning
hours. While these cigs may also briefly affect portions of NW
LA/extreme SW AR after 12Z, they should scatter quickly, but may
linger a bit longer through mid to late morning over E TX before
eventually scattering out during the afternoon. They should lift
into a modest cu field and gradually spread NE across much of our
remaining airspace later in the period. Breezy south winds will
persist, albeit slightly lower overnight, before increasing once
again on Sunday between 12-18 kts with higher gusts ranging from
20-30 kts during the afternoon.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 55 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 54 81 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 58 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 56 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 60 82 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 58 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 58 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19