000
FXUS64 KSHV 251158
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
658 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Once again starting off a little warm with upper 60s for the
average, with end points of 62/62 in Ruston with fog and 70
degrees in downtown Shreveport. Skies are mostly fair with patchy
fog beneath, except for SE OK / S AR under clouds riding over
the cooler air associated with that weak backdoor frontal
boundary from yesterday. The SE winds look to prevail until
further notice aside from brief S/SW Monday afternoon behind the
heaviest rain period. We will be talking about sea breeze activity
in May with this pattern of flow inland off the Gulf.

However, the Westerlies will still impose their will this weekend
with the number two and especially number three punches. The
upper ridging extends from TX to Canada west of the MS River and
will drift eastward slowly, building shield power with heights
soaring. Highs today will push more sites into the mid 80s and
some upper 80s over the weekend with our lows in the upper 60s and
lower 70s for a while. Short term rainfall today will focus
slight chance pops over that retreating backdoor front today and
then start to edge our way after midnight tonight into SE OK and
NE TX and lots more of our real estate going forward. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Overall, not much new to see here with the looming pattern of
occluding lows racing off the front range and over the high
plains, still much of the country dealing with these back to back
tracks to end the month. And we will see rain totals continue to
pile up with a hearty gradient mentioned a couple of days ago, and
right through our neck of the woods. The WPC has really entered
the fold with EROs running over our cwa with some presence from
days 2 through day 5. Certainly we are going to need a flood
watch(es) this go around, but exactly which of our Counties and
potential Parishes is a little distant 12hr forecast period-wise.

Some of the Slight Risk ERO details will likely upgrade to
Moderate this weekend with the day 4 our most likely candidate.
The best news is, our rivers and lakes are lowest where rain will
initially begin to pile up this weekend. Other ArkLaTex affected
sites last go around are all falling and will only have more room
to store runoff before early next week. So we will watch daily how
the subtle lines are drawn over much of the plains and midSouth
U.S. this weekend with convective watches. The SPC outlooks days
1-3 are all sporting an Enhanced Risk area with our turn also
holding off until day 4ish. So stay tuned this weekend and
remember that the latest information could save lives. Please keep
abreast of this Spring Storm multi- day event, if plans are
riding it all out here at home, but especially if this weekend
includes a tank of gas travel around our 4 state (plus) region.
/24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

For the 25/12Z TAF period, MVFR/IFR cigs are beginning to affect
some of our East Texas terminals while mostly VFR conditions are
observed elsewhere. Some patchy fog will also be remain possible
through at least daybreak before quickly dispersing. The general
trend today will be for increasing cloud cover at multiple levels
throughout the TAF period. Most sites will eventually return to
low VFR conditions although some brief periods of MVFR cigs cannot
be ruled out beyond this morning as cu/stratocu cigs increase from
the W/NW along with mid and high clouds as well. Light/near calm
winds this morning will trend more southerly as a stalled boundary
across our northern airspace lifts back northward later on today.
Wind speeds will increase into the afternoon with 10-15 kts on
average and higher gusts around 20 kts across our western sites.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  70  85  72 /  10  10  30  40
MLU  85  65  85  69 /  10   0  10  20
DEQ  82  67  77  65 /  30  20  80  60
TXK  84  69  81  69 /  10  10  60  60
ELD  82  65  82  67 /  20  10  20  40
TYR  83  70  81  70 /  10  20  70  30
GGG  83  69  83  70 /  10  10  60  40
LFK  85  71  85  70 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19