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000
FXUS64 KSJT 242343
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
643 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper level short wave ridging is in place across the area as an
upper level low moves toward the southern California coast. As
faster flow moves in aloft maintaining lee troughing, southerly
flow continues to keep the air mass in west central Texas moist
and unstable. Deep layer shear is expected to be in the 35 to 45
knot range late this afternoon and evening. Short range CAMs
continue to depict isolated thunderstorms developing
west/northwest of our forecast area this evening between 6 PM and
8 PM. However, with the upper level ridge in place, indicating
warmer temperatures aloft, there is some question as to whether or
not convection will be able to break the cap. In addition, not
all CAMs sustain the convection into our counties. At any rate,
should convection get going, it would likely quickly become strong
to severe. So, will keep a 20 to 30 percent chance of storms
going generally along and north of a Sterling City to Baird line
going for the evening hours, with a mention of severe weather
possible for western Big Country areas.

Once convection dies later tonight, we can expect increasing
clouds, and another warm, humid night, with lows in the mid to
upper 60s. For Thursday, expect continued gusty southerly winds,
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and skies becoming partly
cloudy after a mostly cloudy start.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Thursday Night...

Negatively tilted upper shortwave trough will lift from Colorado/
northern New Mexico Friday evening into the central/southern High
Plains by daybreak Saturday. The  dryline will extend across West
Texas Friday evening, before a Pacific front overtakes the dryline
and moves east into our area overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the dryline, and could move into the
western Big Country and perhaps northwestern Concho Valley during
the night. With the approach of the Pacific front and the aid of
lift from the aforementioned shortwave trough, thunderstorms should
increase in coverage (probably form into a line of storms) and push
east across much of the northern half of our area late Thursday
night/early Friday morning. Given the favorable/strong vertical
shear profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. With a low-level jet in place and
strengthened low-level shear along with increased storm-relative
helicity, will have a risk of a couple of tornadoes.

The Pacific front is expected to move east of our area on Friday,
but a slower movement could keep a lingering chance of showers and
storms into the morning for our far eastern and southeastern
counties. Skies will clear from the west Friday, and it will be warm
but less humid with the infiltration of drier air. Highs will be in
the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

Low-level moisture will make a quick return across our area Friday
night, out ahead of another upper trough which will drop southeast
into the Four Corners area. Our area will be back into a moist and
moderate to strongly unstable airmass Saturday. The area generally
east of a line from Aspermont to Eden to Menard will have a risk of
severe storms Saturday and Saturday night, with large hail and
damaging winds the main hazards and an isolated tornado risk.
Carrying low to medium PoP (20-50 percent) for the possibility of
thunderstorms in mainly our northern and eastern counties Saturday.
Have some uncertainty about the timing/placement of storm
development during the day Saturday. The aforementioned Four Corners
area trough will move across northeastern New Mexico/southeastern
Colorado late Saturday afternoon, and lift across the
central/southern High Plains Saturday night. The setup favors
additional thunderstorm development Saturday night across our area,
as a weak Pacific front moves east into the area.

The overall weather for Sunday looks similar to Friday, with the
weak Pacific front moving east of our area and a possible lingering
chance of showers and storms in our eastern counties in the morning.
Warm and drier conditions in the afternoon with clearing skies, and
highs in the 80s. For early next week, a weak cold front may move
south briefly into the Big Country Monday afternoon, but otherwise
temperatures look warm with daily highs in the mid 80s to around 90
Monday through Wednesday. A upper shortwave trough may approach and
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but the details look uncertain at this  point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Abundant mid and high clouds continue across West Central Texas
terminals late this afternoon. Gusty south to southeast winds
continue to bring low level moisture into the area, and fully
expect another round of MVFR cigs to develop and mover over all of
the terminals late tonight and continue into much of the day on
Thursday. May even see some brief IFR across the southern
locations. These will be slow to burn off and may take well into
the afternoon before VFR conditiions return. Otherwise, may see a
brief lull in the winds this evening, but gusty winds will return
overnight as the low level jet increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  84  64  86 /  20  10  80  10
San Angelo  68  85  65  88 /   0   0  60   0
Junction    68  88  68  91 /   0   0  30  10
Brownwood   66  82  65  86 /   0  10  60  30
Sweetwater  68  83  63  85 /  20  10  70   0
Ozona       67  82  65  88 /   0   0  50   0
Brady       68  83  68  87 /   0  10  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07