224
FXUS64 KSJT 080833
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
333 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast across West Central
Texas today. Stratus across the southern half of the area will
quickly dissipate by mid to late morning, with mostly sunny skies
this afternoon. Surface moisture has quickly increased across the
area early this morning, but expect the dryline to quickly sweep
east across the region today, with much drier air filtering in
across the area. Highs across the Big Country will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s, with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the
area. A few locations could approach the upper 90s. Expect
overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...Active weather possible through the weekend...

By Thursday afternoon, a cold front is expected to have moved
well south into our forecast area, while a dryline tightens up
along or just inside our western border. Aloft, a shortwave is
expected to move over the area in southwest flow. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms could develop by late afternoon along and
east of the dryline, which is expected to stretch roughly from the
northern Concho Valley area southeast into the Northwest Hill
Country. With surface based CAPE values potentially over 3000
J/kg, and 0-6 km shear values over 50 knots, any storms that do
develop will quickly strengthen to severe levels, with large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes possible. Highs
Thursday will depend greatly on the speed of the cold front, but
generally looking at highs near 80 north of I-20, and as warm as
the upper 90s from the Concho Valley into the I-10 corridor.

For Friday, should see a short lull in precipitation behind the
cold front and without any prominent upper level support. Highs
should be in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Saturday, the medium range models begin to diverge in their
solution, so confidence in the forecast is diminished. However,
there is some agreement that another shortwave will move through
the area Saturday into Saturday night, interacting the remnants of
the surface front, and bringing another chance for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Temperatures should
also continue to be cooler if this precipitation and additional
cloud cover occurs, with highs mainly in the 70s.

Expect precipitation to move out of the area during the day
Monday, or possibly sooner. A warming trend will also commence
Monday through the middle of next week, with highs back in the 80s
to near the lower 90s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Stratus will develop at the southern 3 counties between 08Z and
09Z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Expect a return of VFR conditions
by mid morning. West to southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots by mid morning, then decrease below 12 knots late this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  60  82  58 /   0   0  10   0
San Angelo  97  62  95  61 /   0   0  10   0
Junction    98  65  96  63 /   0   0  20   0
Brownwood   93  63  83  60 /   0   0  30  10
Sweetwater  90  61  81  58 /   0   0  10   0
Ozona       95  64  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       93  64  87  62 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Daniels