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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 180832
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
232 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions are expected to persist over
Utah and southwest Wyoming over the next several days. High
pressure will build in by the weekend, bringing a noticeable
warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...A grazing trough is
sliding east into Wyoming this morning, with the associated cold
front now draped over southern Utah. Seeing some lingering high
clouds, primarily in the vicinity of the boundary, but conditions
overall are fairly benign. In westerly flow, will see dry
conditions today, with locations behind the front over the
northern two-thirds of Utah seeing maxes near to 5F below seasonal
normals. Ahead of the boundary, southern Utah will see high 5-10F
above normal for this time of year.

For Friday, modest warm advection will bring the start of a
warming trend, with the greatest change in temperature anticipated
over northern portions of the forecast area, with highs up to 5F
above normal for this time of year. Most guidance indicates a
weakly defined Pacific trough starting to make its way into the
Desert Southwest at this time, which will bring a low (20% chance)
of a few showers over the higher terrain in the vicinity of the
boundary still over southern Utah during this time.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...From Saturday on into early
next week the forecast region will remain within a generally dry
zonal flow regime aloft. Most forecast guidance suggests little
opportunity for measurable precipitation, with only some isolated
and largely diurnally driven showers possible over portions of the
high terrain. Model guidance does show potential for a weak frontal
boundary to sink into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on Monday,
but even then precipitation chances remain very low, and generally
just expect this feature to knock temperatures down a handful of
degrees accordingly. Even then, with mild H7 temperatures more or
less in place, daytime highs across the forecast region will
continue to run well above climatological normal for late April at
most locations.

By midweek there is some modest consensus on a slightly more
amplified trough moving into the W CONUS, though models show a fair
bit of spread in exact strength/size/trajectory. Dependent on the
aforementioned, anticipate precipitation chances to begin to
increase and a halt or reversal of the warming trend to take place,
though overall nothing too remarkable is noted from the current
suite of guidance. Still, at least something of a slightly more
active pattern looks to hold as the CPC 8 to 14 day precipitation
outlook continues to lean slightly in favor of above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light and somewhat variable winds expected around
sunrise, with winds gradually becoming more northwesterly late
morning into the afternoon hours. After ~06Z/midnight, guidance
becomes split on if northerly component is maintained or if
southerly drainage flow can develop. With winds becoming light,
would anticipate some amount of variability returning. Skies
expected to remain VFR through the period, with some increasing mid
to high clouds late Thursday into the overnight.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Fairly quiet TAF period
expected at area terminals. Majority of terminals will see wind
magnitudes largely remain fairly light, with directions generally
diurnally normal to a bit variable times. Conditions anticipated to
remain VFR with dry weather and a general mix of mid to high level
clouds.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
