Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 240618
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
218 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough down the Eastern Seaboard early this morning
continues to move into the W Atlantic today while upper ridging
quickly builds from the Gulf of Mexico into the Deep South.
Last frontal boundary moving over the FL Peninsula this morning
with surface high pressure building into the region producing
tight pressure gradient and breezy N-NE winds today with as
atmosphere dries out. Main weather hazard will be the high rip
current risk along area beaches today as residual elevated Gulf
seas move ashore.

Progressive pattern to continue with the narrow ridging moving
overhead Monday then into the W Atlantic Tuesday as a large and
broad upper trough deepens down through the Plains states. The
upper low moves eastward pushing a surface cold front through the
local region mid week with the next chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms ahead of and along the front.

Drier high pressure to build into the region to end the work week
and continue into next weekend with warming conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions to continue with N winds shifting NE and becoming
gusty aft 12Z today.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure building into the region is producing gusty
north to northeasterly winds today with hazardous winds and seas
continuing and will likely need to keep a SCEC in place after the
SCA expires at 10AM. Tonight expect and easterly evening surge to
increase with headlines continuing into Monday. The next frontal
system will move through the region mid week shifting winds to the
south and bringing some showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead
of the front. Breezy winds shift to the northwest behind the front
keeping seas elevated through late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure and drier conditions will filter into the region
on gusty north to northeasterly winds today into early week with
high dispersions values. Moisture will return mid week ahead of
the next cold front with increased rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  61  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  81  63  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  75  59  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  81  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  77  54  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  76  64  81  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20
     to 60 NM.


&&

$$

RJD


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