Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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711 FXUS62 KTBW 040749 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 349 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 An upper level ridge is currently extending from Florida north into eastern Canada, while surface high pressure over the Atlantic ridges across northern Florida into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This surface ridge will hold through the weekend and early next week, then shift south during the middle to later portion of the week. Southeasterly/easterly flow the next few days will become more southerly during the second half of the week, with daily sea breeze circulations turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon. Enough moisture will be present to allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon along sea breeze boundaries. Moisture will increase slightly on Sunday, leading to higher rain chances, then drier air will start to shift in through the first half of the work week and limit rain chances. Otherwise, the stacked ridging will lead to building temperatures, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid 90s over the interior Wednesday through Friday. Despite the warm temperatures, heat index values are forecast to remain around 100 or less, and will not approach local Heat Advisory thresholds (108). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions will hold through at least the morning hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon and evening, and could briefly impact area terminals, with the highest chances over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD, and over the interior around KLAL. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, with southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will drift south Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds becoming slightly more southerly. Wind speeds will remain below headline criteria. Rain chances will remain low, but a few sea breeze storms could drift into the waters each day during the afternoon and evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Relative humidity may briefly drop to critically low levels each afternoon this weekend, mainly over the interior. However, wind speeds are not forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag Conditions. Otherwise, spotty high dispersion indices will be possible each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 73 89 73 / 20 20 30 10 FMY 90 70 90 70 / 30 30 40 20 GIF 91 70 90 69 / 30 20 50 10 SRQ 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 10 BKV 91 65 90 65 / 20 20 40 10 SPG 87 75 87 74 / 20 20 30 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming