835
FXUS62 KTBW 031819
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Broad upper ridging extends northeastward along the eastern seaboard
through the end of the week. By Saturday, the upper ridge moves near
the Bahamas while weak troughing moves through the southeast U.S.
This will be short-lived as the ridge builds back in over the Gulf
of Mexico and Florida by Monday and continues through most of next
week. On the surface, high pressure off the Carolina coastline
ridges westward over Florida and will dominate the weather pattern
for today. There will be some minor north/south movements of the
ridge axis during the forecast period as an area of low pressure and
weak front moves north of the area over the weekend, but overall
this ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature
through the period. Rain chances will remain on the low side (20-40
percent) through the period, with the highest chances on Saturday
and Sunday during the afternoon and evening hours. Above average
temperatures are expected to continue with daytime highs topping out
in the mid 80`s along the coast to low 90`s over the interior
through the first of next week. Overnight lows will dip only into
the mid 60`s to around 70. A further warm up is expected by the
middle of next week with mid to upper 90`s possible over the
interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions with winds less than 12 knots expected
through the forecast period. Rain and storm chances remain on the
low side, so will not include any mention of SHRA or TSRA at any of
the terminals at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure off the Carolina coastline ridges across Florida and
into the Gulf of Mexico and remains in control over the gulf waters
through the period. Mostly rain free conditions are anticipated with
winds remaining 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for
pleasant boating conditions through the weekend. A sea breeze is
expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening. A weak front
will move north of the area during the weekend, but highest chances
of rain are expected to be over land.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure builds in over the area and will dominate the weather
through the period. Slightly drier air will keep low rain chances
over the area today. Minimum humidities could drop near critical
levels, especially in central portions of the Peninsula, but low
winds will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. Easterly
winds prevail becoming onshore by the afternoon through before
shifting from the south during the weekend. Then, a weak front moves
north of the area bringing increasing moisture over the weekend and
along with it chances of rain, with the highest rain chances on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  90  73  89 /   0  20  20  30
FMY  70  90  70  90 /  10  40  20  40
GIF  67  91  69  90 /   0  30  20  40
SRQ  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  20
BKV  64  91  66  90 /   0  20  10  30
SPG  74  87  75  88 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard