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000
FXXX10 KWNP 180031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 18-Apr 20 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 18-Apr 20 2024

             Apr 18       Apr 19       Apr 20
00-03UT       3.00         3.00         2.67
03-06UT       3.00         3.00         2.00
06-09UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         2.00
09-12UT       4.00         2.33         2.33
12-15UT       3.00         2.00         2.67
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         3.00
18-21UT       2.33         2.00         2.67
21-00UT       3.33         2.00         2.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 18 Apr due to
possible CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2024

              Apr 18  Apr 19  Apr 20
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days due to collective potential from
numerous active regions.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 17 2024 2208 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2024

              Apr 18        Apr 19        Apr 20
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely all three
days. There is a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio
blackouts all three days due to the flare potential from several
regions.