Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
894
FXXX10 KWNP 020031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2024
May 02 May 03 May 04
00-03UT 2.33 3.67 3.33
03-06UT 3.33 3.33 2.33
06-09UT 2.67 3.00 3.00
09-12UT 2.33 3.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
15-18UT 3.33 3.33 4.00
18-21UT 4.00 3.33 4.33
21-00UT 4.33 3.67 4.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024
May 02 May 03 May 04
S1 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will
exist on 02 May given the relatively recent activity from AR 3654 and
its current location.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 01 2024 1444 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024
May 02 May 03 May 04
R1-R2 55% 40% 30%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare
activity remain likely on 02 May given the flare histories of ARs 3654
and 3663. Probabilities decrease to a just a chance 03-04 May as AR 3654
rotates off the visible disk.