Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1055 AM EST Wednesday February 28 2024

...Flood Potential is near normal the next two weeks...

...Flood Potential is near normal to slightly below normal through spring...

PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS...
Over the last two weeks, rainfall has generally been in the 0.50 to 2.00 inch
range. This is 50 to 125 percent of normal.

For more information please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/precip

SOIL MOISTURE...
Soil moisture is currently near to slightly below normal across a large portion
of the basin. Most soil moisture is in the 20-70th percentile range. Normal is
considered in the 30-70th percentile range.

State rankings:
Southeast Illinois - Slightly below normal
Indiana - Slightly below normal
Ohio - Slightly below normal west and near normal east
Western Pennsylvania - Near normal
West Virginia - Near normal
Kentucky - Slightly below normal
Tennessee - Slightly below normal

For more information please visit:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml

USGS STREAMFLOWS...
The past seven-day streamflows have been near to slightly below normal.

State rankings:
Southeast Illinois - Slightly below normal
Indiana - Slightly below normal
Ohio - Near normal
Western Pennsylvania - Near normal
West Virginia - Near normal
Kentucky - Near normal
Tennessee - Near normal

For more information please visit:
https://watermonitor.gov

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pools across the Ohio Valley.

OHIO RIVER FLOWS...
Ohio River flows are currently below normal.

Observed values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and
below 100% are below normal.

Pittsburgh - 110%
Huntington - 90%
Cincinnati - 90%
Louisville - 90%
Evansville - 75%
Smithland  - 70%

SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK...
There is no significant snowpack in the basin.

For more information please visit:
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa

ICE COVER...
There is no ice in the basin.

2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
A more active rainfall pattern is on tap for the first half of March before
things turn drier in late March. This will result in slightly above normal
rainfall for the first half of March. However, the slightly above normal
rainfall will be offset by above normal temperatures, above normal soil
temperatures and decreased runoff because greening up of grasses and leaf out
is running 10-20 days ahead of schedule. Therefore, the flood risk is
considered close to normal for the first two weeks of March. Expect some minor
flooding in typical flood prone areas.


OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...
River flows over the next 2 weeks will be slightly above normal on the Ohio
River.

Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above normal and
values below 100% being below normal.

Pittsburgh - 130%
Huntington - 130%
Cincinnati - 130%
Louisville - 130%
Evansville - 130%
Smithland  - 130%

For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

Official forecasts can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc


90-DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK...
The outlook continues to favor normal to slightly below normal flood risk
through spring which means minor to isolated moderate floods are possible.
After a period of wettness in the first half of March, most forecast data
suggests a return to normal or slightly below normal rainfall from late March
through April. It appears the heaviest rains in the next 2-3 months will fall
over parts of Tennessee, Kentucky into Virginia and West Virginia.

STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK...
Southeast Illinois - Minor flooding possible
Indiana - Minor to isolated moderate flooding possible
Ohio - Minor flooding possible
Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible
Southwestern New York - Isolated minor flooding possible
West Virginia - Minor flooding possible
Western Virginia - Minor flooding possible
Kentucky - Minor to isolated moderate flooding possible
Tennessee - Isolated minor flooding possible

For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Flood risk is defined as follows:
Below normal - flooding will be limited
Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations
Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible

Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National
Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to
summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the
potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
conditions.

The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources
outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This
can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro

Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent
conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels,
soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future
precipitation.

$$
Noel


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