Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
859 AM EDT Wednesday March 13 2024

...Flood Potential for the next two weeks is near normal for the Ohio Valley...

...Flood Potential for the next 90-days is near normal to slightly below for
the Ohio Valley...

PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS...
0.50-2.00 inches generally fell across Ohio, Indiana, southeast Illinois and
western Kentucky (50 to 150 percent of normal).  Across western Pennsylvania,
West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, western West Virginia, southwest Ohio and
middle Tennessee 2.00-5.00 inches fell (150-300 percent of normal).

For more information please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/precip

SOIL MOISTURE...
Current soil moisture conditions are below normal across majority of the basin.
 Western Pennsylvania soil moisture is slightly above normal.

State rankings:
Southeast Illinois - Below normal
Indiana - Below normal
Ohio - Below normal
Western Pennsylvania - Slightly above normal
West Virginia - near normal
Kentucky - Normal to slightly below normal
Tennessee - Below normal

For more information please visit:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml

USGS STREAMFLOWS...
Current streamflows are generally near normal across the Ohio Valley with some
pockets of below normal.

State rankings:
Southeast Illinois - slightly below normal
Indiana - Normal to slightly below normal
Ohio - Normal to slightly below normal across the north
Western Pennsylvania - Normal
West Virginia - Normal
Kentucky - Normal to slightly below normal across the west
Tennessee - Below normal

For more information please visit:
https://watermonitor.gov

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pool levels across the Ohio Valley.

OHIO RIVER FLOWS...
Current flow along the Ohio River are above normal upstream of McAlpine Lock
and Dam and slightly below downstream of McAlpine Lock and Dam.

Values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and below 100%
are below normal.

Pittsburgh - 170%
Huntington - 130%
Cincinnati - 130%
Louisville - 115%
Evansville -  95%
Smithland  -  90%

SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK...
There is currently no snow pack across the Ohio Valley

For more information please visit:
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa

ICE COVER...
No ice is present across the Ohio Valley.

2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

The two-week outlook calls for near normal rainfall potential and near normal
flood potential.

A weather system will bring rainfall to the Ohio Valley the end of this week.
The highest amounts forecast are across the western basin.  After this system,
the next several days will be fairly dry.  The chance of precipitation returns
the third week of March.  This is normal for the month of March.


OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...
The Ohio River flow forecasts are expected to be slightly above normal over the
next 14 days.

Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above normal and
values below 100% being below normal.

Pittsburgh - 150%
Huntington - 115%
Cincinnati - 125%
Louisville - 125%
Evansville - 105%
Smithland  - 115%

For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

Official forecasts can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc

90 DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK

The flood outlook for the next 90 days acorss the Ohio Valley continue to favor
normal to slightly below normal flood risk.


STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK...
Southeast Illinois - Minor flooding possible
Indiana - Minor to isolate moderate flooding possible
Ohio - Minor flooding possible
Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible
Southwestern New York - Isolated minor flooding possible
West Virginia - Minor flooding possible
Western Virginia - Minor flooding possible
Kentucky - Minor flooding flooding
Tennessee - Isolated minor flooding

For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Flood risk is defined as follows:
Below normal - flooding will be limited
Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations
Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible

Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National
Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to
summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the
potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
conditions.

The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources
outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This
can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro

Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent
conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels,
soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future
precipitation.


$$


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