Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 170541
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Frontal boundary has stalled across far southeast Oklahoma this
evening and is expected to slowly lift back north tonight, moving
to near I-40 by 12Z Wednesday. Current forecast on track with
no significant changes anticipated in the short term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Wednesday will be a very warm day across eastern OK and western
AR as Tuesday’s frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front
during the daytime. Strong WAA will allow temperatures to spike
into the mid-upper 80s for most locations, with a few spots
flirting with 90F, including the Tulsa metro. A stronger cold
front is still on track to push through the CWA Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front, though timing of convective
initiation is still somewhat uncertain at this time. There should
be sufficient moisture, instability, lift, and shear in place as
the front moves through. However, consensus in model soundings
indicate a fairly stout temperature inversion will also be in
place during the morning hours and into the afternoon, but breaking
by mid-late afternoon as the front enters southeast OK and
northwest/west-central AR. The severe thunderstorm threat will
increase if/once the inversion breaks. The primary threats with
any severe thunderstorm that is able to form will be large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Better details to come in later
forecasts.
Gusty northerly winds will develop in the wake of the front on
Thursday. Breezy northerly winds will continue through the
upcoming weekend before southerly winds return early next week.
Precipitation chances will increase again beginning Friday
evening/night due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from
the west. Precip chances peak during the daytime Saturday into
Saturday evening, with lingering isolated showers and
thunderstorms into Sunday morning. Instability looks to be very
limited late in the week and through the upcoming weekend, with
best instability (1000 J/kg or less) confined to far southeast OK.
The severe thunderstorm threat appears to be very low at this
time.
Abnormally warm temperatures (10-15F above average) will continue
Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the cold front. Behind Thursday’s
front, temperatures drastically drop below seasonal average
through much of the upcoming weekend, with highs in the 60s and
lows generally in the low-mid 40s (coolest day on Saturday). A
warming trend will begin on Monday as southerly winds return, with
another cold front approaching Tuesday/Wednesday.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
VFR conditions prevail across much of the area early this
morning. There is the potential for MVFR ceilings near sunrise
across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However,
these conditions will only be temporary with VFR conditions forecast
area-wide by afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 87 68 82 49 / 0 20 40 10
FSM 87 66 86 56 / 10 10 60 30
MLC 87 68 84 53 / 10 10 40 20
BVO 87 65 79 44 / 0 20 60 10
FYV 86 64 83 48 / 0 20 70 30
BYV 85 63 84 49 / 0 20 80 30
MKO 86 67 85 51 / 10 10 60 20
MIO 83 64 81 46 / 0 30 80 10
F10 87 68 86 50 / 0 10 30 20
HHW 83 67 84 56 / 0 10 40 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...10