192
FXUS64 KTSA 301649
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1149 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Moisture return is well underway across the region ahead of a
dryline that stretches from NW OK down into the TX Panhandle, with
dewpoints well into the 60s. A shortwave trough is beginning to
shift east into the central Plains. Surface low pressure over NW
KS will shift northeast with time and drag a front south and east
this afternoon into the evening across southern KS. Both the front
and the dryline will be a focus for strong to severe storm
activity this afternoon and evening. There are differences in the
CAM data regarding timing and storm coverage on the dryline, but
most data has storms on the front over southern KS. Given the
location of the forcing boundaries, areas to the north and west of
Tulsa will have the best chance for storms. Some locally heavy
rainfall could occur near the KS border where the front becomes
more west-east oriented and would support training storms. Outflow
from the storms on the front could force more storms down into NE
OK tonight.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A warm and more humid day is on tap today as breezy southerly
winds return, with afternoon high temperatures warming well into
the 80s. There will be a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm in
the far northwest part of the forecast area towards evening as a
weak frontal boundary approaches from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Tonight will mark the start of an extended period of unsettled
weather. The aforementioned frontal boundary will sag south to
near the Oklahoma/Kansas border and will be the focus for shower
and thunderstorm activity overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will
be possible as storms train over the same areas, but with
uncertainty on just which side of the border the heaviest rainfall
will set up, will not issue a flood watch at this time.

The frontal boundary will lift back north of the area Wednesday
morning with convection waning at that time. Convection will
likely fire to the west Wednesday afternoon along a dry line, with
that convection potentially affecting our area overnight Wednesday
night. At this point, it appears the southern part of the forecast
area may see the greatest chance for rainfall at that time.

Convective coverage will likely be greatest Thursday into
Thursday night as a cold front moves into and through the area.
Nevertheless, the categorical pops shown by the NBM seem
excessive for a day 3 convective event, especially considering
potential effects from prior rounds of convection. Thus, have
backed off some from those pops Thursday and Thursday evening.

The cold front looks to stall near the Red River early Friday and
will then meander around in our vicinity through the weekend,
which will continue the chances of showers and storms. A stronger
storm system may affect the area early next week, continuing
shower and storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A few areas of fog have developed this morning, but so far have
not affected any of the TAF sites. Included a tempo for lower
visibility for some TAF sites through 14Z. During the day
today, southerly winds will strengthen and become a bit gusty
during the afternoon (15-25 kts). Breezy conditions will persist
into the evening, though speeds may diminish slightly.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected near or just north of KBVO Tuesday
evening, with a somewhat better chance for showers and storms for
all of the northeast OK TAF sites after midnight. CIGs will
develop and come down by Wednesday morning in these areas with
gusty and erratic winds near any thunderstorms. Areas of low
level wind shear may marginal reach criteria tonight into
Wednesday morning but confidence is too low to include at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  63  84  67 /  10  50  40  40
FSM   87  63  87  67 /  10  20  20  30
MLC   85  65  84  67 /  10  20  30  50
BVO   85  60  83  65 /  10  70  40  50
FYV   84  61  83  64 /  10  20  20  30
BYV   84  61  84  66 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   84  63  84  66 /  10  40  30  40
MIO   84  61  83  66 /  10  60  30  40
F10   84  64  83  66 /  10  30  30  50
HHW   82  64  83  65 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06