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000
FXUS64 KTSA 131115
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Windy and unseasonably warm conditions are anticipated across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas today. South-southwest winds of 15 to 20
mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph will push afternoon high temperatures into
the 80s across much of the area this afternoon. These conditions combined
with afternoon relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range will
cause an increase in the fire weather concerns across portions of northeast
Oklahoma, mainly to the northwest of Tulsa.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Another unseasonably warm day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas on Sunday with highs again in the 80s across much of the
area. The winds will likely be a little weaker on Sunday as a cold front
sags into central/southern Kansas allowing the pressure gradient to
relax some across the area.

With several days of southerly low level flow in the books, surface
dew points are expected to be in the 60s area-wide on Monday with
temperatures still topping out in the 80s. This will be in advance of
of a mid-level low set to emerge from the Rockies Monday night and sweep
across the Plains on Tuesday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the vicinity of the dry line across western Oklahoma late Monday afternoon/evening
and spread to the east into the area Monday evening/night as a Pacific cold
front overtakes the dry line. Thunderstorms could linger across the area in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary through early Tuesday evening. Some of the
storms could be severe during this time with all modes of severe weather
possible. There is still much uncertainty with how this storm system will
evolve early next week. The forecast will continue to be refined as the
event draws closer.

After a relative lull in activity Wednesday, the chances of showers and storms
return Thursday as the next cold front moves through the region. A few storms
could become strong to severe across southern portions of the area Thursday
afternoon in the vicinity of the cold front. The run of unseasonably warm
temperatures will come to an end on Friday behind the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. LLWS
will continue until mid morning today, and will return late this
evening through the night. South winds will gust to over 25 knots
at times today and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   84  58  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   83  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   84  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   82  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   82  61  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   83  61  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   83  62  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
F10   83  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   80  58  79  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...05