Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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183 FXUS63 KUNR 110751 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 151 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Warmer and continued dry today. -Becoming unsettled next week with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, best chances Monday night through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday) Issued at 149 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Mean NW flow can be expected through next week, supporting occasional weak PAC impulses. Each of these impulses will have the ability to support isold-sct shra/ts. Moisture will be limited with most of the impulses as the GOMEX remains closed to the region and the main moisture source will be leftover PAC moisture. Convection chances will return Sunday and persist through next week with the best chances for precip in the region Mon-Wed when the best PW`s reside over the region per a better pocket of PAC moisture, and esp over the Black Hills per convective enhancement from terrain. Temps will be warmest the next coupe days with a bit of a cool down mid next week, but still seasonal. Expect mostly sunny skies today with highs in the 70s most places with 80s toward central SD. Weak impulse will cross the region Sunday, supporting isold shra/ts, with the best chances over the southern BH where eddy convergence will be in place. A little stronger impulse will cross the region Monday-Tues, supporting better chances for sct convection, esp given better moisture profiles. After Wed, things dry out, with continued weak impulses offering more isolated convection. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1024 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Helgeson