Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 242108
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
305 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front poised along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain late in the afternoon will blast into the Rio Grande Valley
and westward to the Continental Divide tonight on gusty east to
southeast winds. Gusty winds will persist Wednesday along with
cooler temperatures, especially central and east where highs will
range from 5 to 15 degrees below average. A few showers and
thunderstorms may erupt along and behind the front tonight. Clouds
along the central mountain chain and eastern plains may be slow to
dissipate Wednesday. Another cold front will plunge into eastern New
Mexico Thursday, and into the Rio Grande Valley Thursday night with
gusty winds and a few showers and thunderstorms. The weekend weather
looks unsettled with potential for showers and storms west and
central Saturday and over the eastern plains Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front was stretched more or less along the east slopes of
the central mountain chain at mid afternoon. Forecast still on track
for a gusty east to southeast wind to develop into the Rio Grande
Valley this evening, with the guidance indicating the strongest
winds likely in the ABQ and SAF metro areas, between sunset and 1 or
2 am for SAF and 3 am or so for ABQ. A strong surface gradient over
the eastern plains will also make for gusty northeast winds there
tonight with the strongest winds focused along and east of the Pecos
Valley and over Quay, Curry and Roosevelt counties.  A few showers
or storms are possible mainly in upslope areas central and east and
developing cumulus this afternoon west and central may evolve into
gusty dry showers or a storm or two, but not expecting much or
widespread precipitation. That said, some meager snow accumulations
are possible along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains
and into northeast New Mexico tonight.

Since it appears low level moisture will be shunted into the region
with the front, low clouds are expected over the central and east
overnight, and given the cooler temperatures Wednesday, may take
some time to erode. Wednesday`s highs will range from 5 to 15
degrees below average central and east, while hovering around
average west. There may be an isolated shower or two central and
east, while potential for some dry activity lingers west.

Yet another front is expected in the east Thursday, and it appears
to move into the Rio Grande Valley Thursday night. Isolated showers
and storms are possible mainly over the higher terrain and south of
Interstate 40. Temperatures will mostly below average east, and near
or above average west.

Return flow may bring additional moisture to the state late this
week, and into the weekend. An approaching upper low pressure system
may help as well, but models aren`t as aggressively producing
precipitation during this time as they recently have been.
Consequently have some generic pops for showers and storms west
and central Saturday and over the east on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No significant, widespread critical fire weather conditions through
the next weekend.

Big changes underway with a strong backdoor cold front moving south
and west through much of the east already. The front will gain speed
this evening with strong winds developing behind the front on the
eastern plains near the TX border.  The front will pour through the
passes and canyons of the central mountains into the Rio Grande
Valley this evening, producing wind gusts around 50 mph at ABQ. The
front will press all the way to the Continental Divide and probably
to the AZ border by sunrise Wednesday. RH recoveries will be good in
the west and excellent in the east. Evening showers and a few
thunderstorms possible on the East Central Plains this evening,
otherwise a few rain and higher elevation snow showers overnight
over the North Central Mountains and all of the east.

Wednesday will be a cool day. A few dry storms will be possible over
the western mountains, and a wet storm or two along the eastern
foothills of the central mountains.

Another short wave trough and will brush northeast NM Thursday and
send another back door cold front down the eastern plains later
Thursday and Thursday night. This front will likely spill into the
RGV as well later Thursday night. A few storms could fire over the
North Central Mountains.

Models continue to show a low level moisture tap coming north into
NM for Friday trough much of the weekend. Overall, they are showing
less precipitation over smaller areas. Friday will favor the west,
Saturday the west and central areas, and Sunday the east. A few
storms could turn severe Sunday near the TX border.

An approaching storm early next week will bring the potential for
some severe weather on the eastern plains Monday and Tuesday, and
general showers and storms to the northwest Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A strong backdoor front has moved south past KCVN and KCVS to near
KROW and west to KLVS and KCQC. Front will slow this afternoon, then
accelerate west and south again this evening, surging through the
passes and canyons of central mtn chain into the RGV, bringing
strong gap winds of 25-35kts, including KSAF and KABQ by 00Z-02Z.
Gusts could reach 45kts at KABQ. CIGs are expected to start lowering
to MVFR/IFR across the east this evening and continue into Wed
morning, impacting the KLVS, KTCC and KROW airport. Western NM will
see VFR cigs through the TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  41  74  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  70  28  71 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  38  67  35  70 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  36  75  34  77 /   0   5   0   5
El Morro........................  36  71  33  74 /   5   5   5   5
Grants..........................  38  73  35  76 /   5   5   5   5
Quemado.........................  40  74  38  75 /   5   5   0   5
Glenwood........................  56  83  49  83 /   0   5   0   5
Chama...........................  29  64  25  65 /   5  10   5  10
Los Alamos......................  39  64  39  68 /  10   5   5   5
Pecos...........................  35  61  37  66 /  20   5   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  30  61  30  63 /  30   5   5  10
Red River.......................  24  53  25  54 /  40  10   5  20
Angel Fire......................  27  56  24  58 /  30  10  10  20
Taos............................  34  65  31  67 /  20   5   5  10
Mora............................  31  59  34  63 /  30  10   5  20
Espanola........................  43  70  40  74 /  10   5   0   5
Santa Fe........................  38  64  39  69 /  20   5   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  41  67  38  72 /  10   5   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  45  69  44  76 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  70  48  77 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  72  45  79 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  46  71  45  78 /   5   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  48  72  45  80 /   5   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  45  71  44  77 /   5   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  45  74  49  81 /   5   5   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  40  64  39  70 /  20   5   0   5
Tijeras.........................  42  66  40  72 /  10   5   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  66  36  74 /  10   5   0   5
Clines Corners..................  33  61  37  69 /  30  10   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  38  65  41  73 /  10   5   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  41  67  45  75 /  10   5   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  38  59  41  68 /  20  20  10  10
Capulin.........................  29  57  35  58 /  20  10   5  10
Raton...........................  30  62  33  64 /  20  10   5  10
Springer........................  32  64  35  66 /  20  10   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  31  59  35  64 /  20  10   5  10
Clayton.........................  32  60  39  62 /  30  10   5   5
Roy.............................  33  61  38  65 /  30  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  38  65  42  72 /  30  10   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  37  62  41  73 /  20  10   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  38  64  41  73 /  30  10   5   5
Clovis..........................  36  60  41  73 /  30  10   5   5
Portales........................  38  61  40  75 /  30  10   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  39  63  42  76 /  20  10   5   5
Roswell.........................  46  64  45  83 /  20  20  10  10
Picacho.........................  39  58  43  76 /  20  20  10  20
Elk.............................  40  58  41  73 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT Wednesday for the
following zones... NMZ518-519-534>536.

&&

$$


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