Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 222344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
744 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A northerly flow of cold air will continue across the area into
the weekend. With that cold air will come scattered light snow
showers and flurries from time to time.


3 pm update...

Cold air advection from the north with weak forcing will lead to
snow showers and flurries this period. Temperatures will remain
below normal and cooler than today with more clouds which will
be low. Lows in the 20s and highs in the mid and upper 30s.
Saturated moisture up to around 5k ft where the dendrite zone

A short wave moves in this evening from the northwest. Some lift
with it but low level shear and a short fetch only across Lake
Ontario will hinder snow showers. Best chance as usual in the
eastern Finger Lakes to north branch Susquehanna across the
higher terrain. Snow amounts less than inch tonight.

On Friday an upper level closed low will drop through the area
with some added low level moisture and lift. Less wind shear in
the afternoon but fighting against the late March sun. Again
not much snow accumulation especially on the roads.

Friday night snow showers tapering off as the low level flow
shifts to the northeast and the cold air advection ebbs.


3 pm update...

This period mostly dry. Saturday a weak ridge of high pressure
will be over the area. Saturday night into Sunday get back
doored as a short wave drops south into eastern NY on the back
side of the upper level trough. Added moisture and some lift
could cause some snow showers across the eastern half of the
CWA. Still only slight chance pops.

High temperatures Saturday about the same in the mid and upper
30s. Lows Saturday night drop to the mid teens to the lower 20s
with drier air. Sunday a little warmer with highs in the upper
30s and lower 40s.


Sunday night through Tuesday:

High pressure will build southeastward into the region by Monday
then slowly move eastward and offshore by Tuesday. Southerly flow
will become dominant as a result leading to a gradual warming
trend along with a couple of dry days Monday and Tuesday. Highs
should be in the 40`s and even low 50`s on Tuesday after
starting out in the 20`s. General model blend used given less
than normal model spread.

Tuesday night through Thursday:

Modeling continues to show the approach of the next cold front
by the middle of the week from the west. Modeling has been
keying on a late Tuesday/Wednesday arrival. However, the 12z/22
ECMWF threw a curve ball with a delayed arrival to Thursday.
Will continue a chance of rain showers from Tuesday night
through Thursday. Surface temperatures may briefly be around
freezing Wednesday morning in some locations leading to mixed
p-type issues with a warm boundary layer. Will continue to just
do a rain/snow mix in these areas as details shake out over the
next couple of days. Highs Wednesday and Thursday have a shot to
make into the 50`s each day for many locations with lows in the
30`s. Model guidance could come up a couple of degrees in the
next couple of days with highs depending on the frontal timing
and cloud cover.


VFR conditions are expected throughout most of the night.
Northwest winds will remain around 10 to 20 knots until about
02-04Z when winds go to 5 to 8 kt.

MVFR ceilings are possible around or just after sunrise at KRME,
KITH and KBGM. Some uncertainty is present on how long the
ceilings will be in the MVFR category. The best timing is from
sunrise till mid or late morning currently for this to occur.
Will likely see enough mixing in the afternoon to lift the
ceilings to low-end VFR. Winds will remain nwly and increase
again after 14Z with gusts around 20 knots into the afternoon.
There is the potential for light snow or intermittent flurries
during the day Friday, but confidence is low enough to not
mention in TAFs at this point.


Friday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Some MVFR ceilings
may reform Friday night into Saturday for a brief period.




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