Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 230856
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
456 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system slowly crossing the region will produce
widespread rainfall...heavy at times...across the area today
and tonight. On Tuesday the low move closer to the area with
lighter rainfall then lift northward along the Atlantic Coast
Wednesday. Unsettled weather will remain over the area through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure currently over western TN will remain quasi-
stationary through tonight producing widespread rain across the
forecast area. Currently satellite and WSR-88D imagery shows
rain across much of the southeastern US with moderate to heavy
rain moving through southern GA which will move into the area
later today. Main concern through tonight remains rainfall
amounts with most locations receiving 1.5 to 2 inches of rain.
Although the rainfall will be beneficial with some areas
receiving heavy rainfall there will be the possibility of
localized flooding. Secondary concern is convection late this
afternoon through the early morning hours. The potential for
severe thunderstorms remains low however with a low level jet
around 50 knots over the region there is potential to mix the
winds to the surface. Temperatures this afternoon will range
from the low 60s north to the low 70s south and overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will continue slowly moving through the region
Tuesday and Tuesday night then eject northward along the
Atlantic Coast Wednesday. Rainfall will continue Tuesday with
some drier air mixing in and expected rainfall amounts will be
much lighter. Tuesday afternoon as the low moves near the
forecast area and colder air aloft crosses the region the
potential for some convection will continue with some localized
heavy rainfall possible. With the system beginning to increase
northward movement expect showers to quickly move through the
area with limited potential for localized flooding. On Wednesday
as the low moves away from the region focus will turn to area
rivers as significant rainfall across the Midlands as well as
the Upstate will continue moving through the system with
significant rises in river levels possible. Temperatures will be
in the middle to upper 70s each day with overnight lows in the
middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models remain in good overall agreement with some differences
in timing and intensity as features move through the forecast
area. Upper level trough will remain over the region Saturday
with ridging building in Sunday. At the surface a weak area of
low pressure will develop along the remains of the frontal
boundary on Thursday and quickly cross the area Thursday night.
Drier air will be over the area Friday with an upper level
disturbance moving into the area Friday night and Saturday. High
pressure and drier air will move into the region Saturday night
through Sunday. This progressive pattern will keep chances of
rain in the forecast with temperatures near normal through the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings expected to lower to MVFR before 12z as low level
moisture advection increases ahead of a warm front.

Pressure ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast extending into the
Carolinas. Low pressure system over northern MS/AL will move
very little as upper level low moves slowly east. Models
indicate increasing moisture advection/isentropic lift through
the day which will result in widespread showers and MVFR
conditions with the possibility at times of IFR.

At 06z ceilings remain VFR with patchy light rain moving into
the area. Lamp and HRRR suggest ceilings will lower to MVFR
probably before 12z as low level moisture increases. Winds
southeast/east around 10 knots with higher gusts after daybreak.
Low level wind shear through early morning due to strong 40 to
50 kt low level jet. This wind shear threat may continue
through the morning and will be monitored. As warm front moves
into the CSRA this afternoon, there is some potential for
stronger convection/thunderstorms. Guidance suggests
restrictions continue into the evening as low pressure/occluded
front approaches the region with showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. Guidance suggests gusty winds possible in the
evening around 25 knots.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Widespread showers, possibly heavy, and associated restrictions
Monday night. Conditions improving by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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