Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241350
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
950 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low over the Tennessee valley will slowly track east to
the mid Atlantic region by Wednesday. A cold front will cross
the local area early on Wednesday. High pressure will build
across the region Wednesday night through Thursday night before
a cold front moves east across the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light to moderate persistent rain continues to move slowly north
into Richland...Ashland...Stark counties this morning with
scattered light showers elsewhere. High res models continue to
indicate that rain will impact the region much of the
day...possibly into Wednesday morning. Otherwise...forecast
looks on track...with no changes made this morning.

The measurable precipitation up to this point in the night,
albeit light, has been near Mt. Vernon and Marion. Others have
seen just a sprinkle or two. With a tap of Atlantic moisture and
a broad area of lift associated with frontogenetic forcing, a
more focused area of rain is developing across West Virginia and
southwest PA. This will spread across the east-central OH this
morning (Millersburg, Canton, Mansfield, Youngstown). Have
increased precip chances to categorical for all but far
northeast OH/nw PA for today. As the upper low across the TN
Valley begins to shift east, so too will the better areas of
lift this evening. Will shift the categorical PoPs into
northwest PA. As was noted by the day shift yesterday, raw
guidance is coming in significantly cooler for today and that is
still the case with this run. Even though current 3 am
temperatures are in the mid 50s, this is about where we will be
for highs today.

For tonight the sharp shortwave across the northern Great Lakes
this morning will pivot across the lakes through early Wednesday
morning. This will take a cold front southeast across the local
area Wednesday morning. This will prolong the shower chances
through tonight and into Wednesday morning especially for
northeast OH/nw PA. Significant drying aloft takes place
Wednesday and allow precip chances to taper off. With the shift
in winds to the northeast and north tonight and north-northwest
for Wednesday, we will see another step down in temperatures.
After lower and mid 40s tonight, we look to recover into the
upper 40s to mid 50s for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Wednesday night with models showing minor
differences with the moisture and position of the upper low.
The GFS shows upper low pressure in srn Ontario while the NAM
has it more over KBUF. The ECMWF has it just north of KTOL. Will
accept more the grouping of the NAM/GFS although the GFS is dry
across nwrn PA while the NAM would suggest a pop would be
necessary. For continuity and compromise, will keep a low chance
pop northeast through the night. For Thursday, both the NAM and
GFS show high pressure building in from the west so will keep
forecast dry. Next chance for rain will come Friday afternoon as
a cold front moves through the area accompanied by an upper
trough moving through the Great Lakes. At this time moisture is
not convincing but given upper support we could see a line of
showers work through. Friday night into saturday another low and
reinforcing cold front will drop through the area out of the
northwest likely bringing another round of showers and falling
temps. Temps below normal Thursday and Saturday. Friday near
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday night through Monday will be dominated by high pressure.
The high will be over the area Sunday and then move to the Carolina
coast by Tuesday setting up strong warm advection into the Ohio
Valley for Monday.  Expect highs Sunday 50 to 60 with highs near 70
Monday. Tuesday highs will be even warmer with 70 to 80 degrees not
out of the question away from the immediate lakeshore.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Rain becoming more widespread from south to north today. VFR to
start, but heavier showers will bring MVFR conditions. Lower
ceilings arrive from west to east today. Current MVFR ceilings
are across north- central IN. SREF and NARRE-TL show the MVFR
ceilings making it only to TOL/FDY before 19Z (granted vsby in
shra may be MVFR at times). IFR will increasingly be likely
after 00Z Wed. East-southeast winds will begin to shift to the
northeast tonight and north toward 12Z Wed.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Brief small craft conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon as
northwest flow increases to 15 to 20 knots behind a cold front.
Models however are indicating waves top out around 3 feet or so, so
for now will go with a 2 to 4 foot forecast Wednesday and defer to
afternoon models. Otherwise no headlines expected through the period
with winds generally below 15 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Riley/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...TK



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