Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
325
FXUS61 KCTP 260209
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1009 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak storm system will continue to move up along the NJ coast
and into New England overnight. High pressure will move in for
tonight and Thursday before another weak low begins to affect
the region Friday into Saturday.

A stretch of fair, mild and dry weather will start Sunday as
high pressure builds into the forecast area.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

Disorganized showers cover portions of the forecast area, with
a thin line of the most developed showers just moving through
Schuylkill County as of 10PM. Further west we have just some
lighter showers or sprinkles. The upper trough is moving into my
western zones and the the HRRR shows the showers continuing to
dry up as the support weakens.

The upper level system will pass by to the NE by tomorrow
morning allowing drier air to make inroads from the west.
The mostly cloudy skies will will keep minimum temperatures
around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Skies will begin cloudy tomorrow and slowly improve as the day
continues. Northwesterly flow will keep winds gusty through the
first half of the afternoon with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph
possible. Weak high pressure will build into the region through
the latter half of tomorrow which will bring clearing skies
Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures Thursday will be
slightly below normal due to cold air advection due to FROPA and
the brisk northwesterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Will be tracking a weather system moving through the area Thu
night and Friday raising pops. This is ahead of the next trough
that will be over the area for the weekend. Will keep pops in
the forecast through Saturday when surface pressure rises and
drier air moves in for the second half of the weekend. This is
all ahead of a rising heights and more ridging setting up for
the region. Look for temperatures finally rising above average
and real spring weather arriving next week with many areas
finally seeing a substantial greenup.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1003 mb surface low was located just to the northwest of KACY
at 00Z Thu and moving NNE. The departure of this low combined
with a cold front pushing east from the Western Mtns of PA this
evening will lead to mainly VFR conditions across the
Susquehanna Valley, MVFR conditions over the Central Mtns, and
IFR with ocnl LIFR over the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands of PA
(KJST and KBFD).

Descending portion of a 60 kt mid-level jet wrapping into a
compact center of low pressure aloft (near KBUF) will transport
some moderately gusty NW winds to the surface overnight and
Thur morning. Sustained winds should be in the 12-16kt range and
gusts capped at 23-25kts beginning in the west early this
evening, and across the Susq Valley around or after midnight.
The moderately gusty northwest wind will continue through at
least early Thursday afternoon, before diminishing quickly late
in the day.

VFR will prevail over the Susq Valley late tonight and Thursday,
and become the dominant flying conditions across the Western
Mtns by late Thu morning.


Outlook...

Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Mainly VFR elsewhere early,
then widespread VFR in the afternoon.

Fri...Areas of rain with low cigs etc.

Sat...AM showers/cig reductions possible NW Mtns.

Sun...Reductions possible NW Mtns.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Ceru
LONG TERM...Ross
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.