Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271139
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Another hot and humid day will be on tap across the region today,
and daytime highs could possibly reach record highs for a few
locations. Strong daytime heating of moisture axis will give way to
thunderstorms across western Kansas by this afternoon/evening. This
activity will gradually spread eastward tonight and should remain
west of central KS with moisture transport not veering out. Hot and
humid conditions will continue for Memorial Day, and once again
expect thunderstorms to develop over western Kansas in the
afternoon. Would expect the thunderstorms to become more numerous on
Monday night with a upper level short wave providing better
upper support across western Kansas. Some of this activity could
reach portions of central Kansas late Monday night and linger into
Tuesday morning, as the upper level wave shifts slowly east.

Meanwhile models are in decent agreement with upper level short wave
energy moving across the central plains on Tuesday/Tuesday night,
and showing signs of upper level winds increasing/veering out some.
This signal combined with strong daytime heating of richer moisture
supports good chances of severe weather impacting the region for
Tuesday afternoon/night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Depending how the convection manifests itself on Tuesday night,
Wednesday could be another day of active severe weather for the
region. Models show upper level heights increasing for Thursday into
Friday with strong elevated mixed layer spreading northeast across
Kansas. Elevated thunderstorms look favorable on the edge of the EML
for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across portions of
central/eastern Kansas. Otherwise the heat and humidity could really
ramp up for Kansas on Thursday and especially on Friday with
afternoon heat index values potentially reaching dangerous levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Upper ridge will remain over the area today. South to southeast
winds will become gusty across central Kansas in the afternoon.
Isolated late day convection over western Kansas may move east-
northeast into central Kansas after midnight, though chances and
coverage are too low to include in the terminals for now.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    95  69  92  70 /   0   0   0  20
Hutchinson      95  67  92  69 /   0   0   0  20
Newton          94  68  92  68 /   0   0   0  20
ElDorado        93  68  90  69 /   0   0   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   93  68  91  69 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         96  67  93  66 /   0  10  10  40
Great Bend      95  67  91  66 /   0  10  10  30
Salina          97  68  94  69 /   0   0   0  20
McPherson       96  67  92  68 /   0   0   0  20
Coffeyville     93  68  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
Chanute         93  68  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
Iola            93  68  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    93  68  91  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KED


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