Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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860
FXUS61 KILN 270600
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
200 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across the region
overnight. In the wake of this system, the rest of the Memorial
Day weekend will be warm and humid.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Scattered convection continues to occur along generally an
east-west band that is sagging south. This should diminish
through the night. Forecast lows look reasonable at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
H5 ridge begins to builds over the Ohio Valley Sunday as the s/w
exits to the east. This combined with drier mid levels will act
as a cap to thunderstorms development and expect Sunday to be
dry. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80s.

The ridge remains in place Sunday night. Skies should be
clearing as the night progresses. Could see some more fog by the
end of Sunday night. It will be muggy and warm with lows in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm and humid conditions will be present for Monday. Monday is
expected to be the warmest day of the long term. Precipitation
is expected to stay confined to south of the region and
therefore went with dry conditions for Monday and Monday night.

Beginning later in the day on Tuesday, moisture from the remnants of
Alberto will begin to work into the region.  Wednesday and Thursday
will bring the highest chances of precipitation to the region.  As
the low nears the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening
wind gust could exceed 30 mph.  Trended winds and wind gusts upwards
with this forecast during this time.

A weak disturbance will keep precipitation chances in the forecast
for Friday.  There are some subtle weak features near the area for
Saturday, however nothing strong enough to have precipitation
chances in the forecast for Saturday at this time.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal for most locations
through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection still continues to linger across some of the TAF
sites this morning, but in general continues to weaken due to a
lack of daytime heating. This morning, some high res models are
indicating the possibility of MVFR restrictions in visibilities
thanks to weak winds and yesterdays precipitation. Overall,
cloud cover is currently sufficient to where most MVFR
visibility development should be held off.

During the day today drier air will continue to nudge south
with PWATs falling below 1.00" in places. GFS soundings show
drier air quickly moving in across all TAF sites, while the NAM
shows enough moisture lingering towards KCVG/ KLUK were some
thunderstorm formation would be possible. For now the chance
looks to low to mention in the TAFs.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Thursday.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sites
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Haines



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