Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231930
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving, deepening low pressure system will move across
the southern Mid-Atlantic states tonight through Tuesday,
bringing widespread rain and gusty winds. The low will move
northeast Wednesday and push a cold front through the area
Wednesday night. Several weak disturbances will affect the area
late Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 330 PM Mon...Mainly dry albeit overcast conditions across
E NC this afternoon. Area of increasing lift aloft is pushing
into mid level dry air for the western half of the FA, but dry
layer between 700-850MB continues to hold strong, with rain
evaporating before reaching the ground. Near term sndgs
indicating this dry nose is eroding, so column will be
moistening from w to e through the late afternoon and evening
with widespread rain breaking out across the whole FA late this
evening. Heavy rain threat will arrive late tonight as continued
vort advection/diffluence aloft increases with PW`s steadily
rising through aoa 1.5in, especially wrn half of the FA. Winds
will also pick up in strength as southeasterly gradient steadily
increses through the night, and begin time of wind adv still on
track with winds gusting aoa 45 mph by dawn for downeast
Carteret through OBX zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Mon...Nasty day, especially first half, expected
on Tuesday with continued strong moisture feed into E NC, with
large scale lift maximized through the morning. This will
produce heavy rain/localized flooding threat as a couple inches
may fall in short order for some locations. Strong winds will
peak Tuesday from SW to NE, with winds strongest for the OBX in
the afternoon, and diminishing for Carteret by early to mid
afternoon. Marginal wind adv criteria for the counties bordering
the sounds, though will hold off on issuance attm. Instability
will be on the rise through the day, but large scale lift will
be shunted northeast with organized showers diminishing by
afternoon. However, area will remain in warm sector all day, and
some redevelopment of showers with isolated thunder expected by
afternoon. May be a threat for a marginally strong to severe
storm, especially western portions of the FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Monday...Slow moving upper low and associated
surface low will produce ongoing wet and windy period into
Tuesday. Lingering upper trough pattern will then result in
some chance of showers into Saturday, with ridging and drying
expected Saturday night into Sunday.

Tuesday night...Surface low will be moving across just inland of
area with precip tapering off as some dry-slotting moves over
area, along with winds gradually diminishing as tighter pressure
gradient moves N and E of area. POPs will diminish to chance
overnight with low temps from upper 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday through the weekend...Dampening upper trough will
finally lift across area Wednesday with lingering small chance
of showers. Wed night looks dry with brief period of upper
ridging, then low chance POPs for showers will exist for Thu
into Saturday as series of dampening short waves move through
mean upper trough with associated weak surface features. Rain
will become more scattered and taper off as the sfc low lifts NE
and drier air filters in. Temps will warm well into 70s inland
on Wed, then generally low to mid 70s rest of period except for
65-70 Outer Banks.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 255 PM Mon...VFR conditions are expected into early
evening as residual dry air is eroding the leading edge of the
large area of rain advancing toward the area today. Expect MVFR
conditions to develop at the TAF sites 4-6Z (Midnight-2 AM) as
rain coverage and intensity begin to increase. There is strong
consensus in the guidance that after 12Z (8 AM) IFR conditions
will develop as the heaviest rain area moves across the region.
Some improvement to MVFR is expected after 2 PM as the initial
widespread rain area moves out and yields to a more showery
regime with scattered strong showers and thunderstorms possible.
Strong SE winds will gust to 20 to 30 kt through the period.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 255 PM Monday... Conditions will improve to mostly VFR
Wednesday through Friday, but the threat of isolated to
scattered showers will continue each day with a possibility of
brief sub-VFR conditions. Direr conditions are forecast to
develop over the area Sat as high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 330 PM Mon...Deteriorating conditions are expected for
the waters and sounds through the evening. ESE winds currently
15-20 kt with gusts to 25+ kt over the warmer Gulf Stream
waters. Winds further increase tonight becoming SE 25-35 kts,
with gusts to 40 knots. Have added Neuse and Bay and Pamlico
rivers to the gale warning as gradient orientation will be up
river.

Winds and seas will peak on Tuesday with SE gradient still
producing 25-35 kt winds with highers gusts south of Oregon
Inlet and Pamlico sound. May need a short period gale warning
for Albemarle, Alligator, and waters north of Oregon Inlet
Tuesday afternoon as SE gradient pushes through, but marginal
attm and will let later shifts reevaluate. Seas will peak Tue
afternoon in the 10-17 ft range.


Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday /...
As of 400 AM Monday...Ongoing strong and gusty E-SE winds will
continue gradually veer to SE and peak at 30-35 KT mainly off
Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras during the day as deepening low
pressure approaches from SW. Winds will become S-SW Wed night
and diminish below 20 KT, shifting to NW and N 10 Kt or less Wed
night into Thu behind weak cold front. Series of relatively
weak systems will affect area late Thu into Friday and again
Friday night into Saturday with speeds mainly 15 KT or less.

Seas peaking 10-15 KT Tuesday will gradually subside to 6-9 ft
by Wed morning, finally dropping below 6 feet by Thu morning,
and then lingering around 3-4 ft into Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM Mon...A low pressure system will impact the region
tonight through late Tuesday. Strong SE winds will develop,
resulting in many coastal impacts across Eastern NC. Minor
coastal flooding will be possible as early as late tonight but
especially Tuesday, for areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound and
rivers, as strong southeast winds develop. Winds are expected to
funnel water up the Pamlico River, leading to possible minor
flooding up through the town of Washington. Minor coastal
flooding, beach erosion, and overwash will be possible late
tonight through Tuesday night for areas along the immediate
coast. Rough surf, dangerous shore break, and a high rip current
risk are expected along the beaches.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ047-080-081-093-094.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through
     Tuesday evening for NCZ095-098-103-104.
     High Surf Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ103-104.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for NCZ103-104.
     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ095-103-104.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ095-
     098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ095-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ130-
     131.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL/SGK
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SGK
MARINE...JME/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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