Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 231039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
339 AM PDT Fri Mar 23 2018


A break in precipitation is expected for most of today. Gusty
winds develop this afternoon ahead of a couple fast-moving and
colder storms that will move through with some snow for northeast
California into northwest Nevada this weekend. A warmer and drier
pattern is expected next week with temperatures trending above
average later in the week.


.SHORT TERM...through Sunday afternoon

Reduced expected snowfall for this weekend in the lower valleys
of northeast California and western/west-central Nevada, as well
as Mono County.

Northeast California, the Sierra, and western Nevada are in a
precipitation lull until the next disturbance rounds the base of
an upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. Winds
will pick up for the afternoon and evening as the disturbance
approaches, with gusts 30-40 mph possible. This will cause chop on
area lakes and bring some concern for high-profile vehicles along
the Highway 395 and I-580 (mainly south of Reno) corridor.

A period of snow showers will move into northeast CA this evening
before sagging into the Tahoe area by late tonight. The forcing
with the upper wave is skirting by over far northern CA and into
Oregon, so lift is expected to wane as the precipitation sags
down towards Tahoe. In addition, the wave moves by quickly so the
heavier precipitation should not last more than a few hours,
especially away from the immediate Sierra crest. Still, some
travel impacts from snow in the Sierra from Tahoe north and in
northeast CA are expected as the snow will fall during the
overnight and morning hours. Out into western Nevada, impacts
should remain isolated tonight and Saturday morning as the
precipitation band is expected to fall apart (loss of forcing) as
it moves down to the I-80 corridor.

The next wave associated with the main upper trough moves through
Saturday evening and overnight into early Sunday morning, bringing
another round of light to moderate snow showers and travel
impacts to the Sierra and northeast CA. Simulations have the best
moisture depth and instability north of I-80 so snowfall in
western Nevada should remain light and sporadic in coverage.
Showers could linger into Sunday afternoon as the main upper
trough resides overhead; however, impacts should be minimal with
strong road heating making for mainly wet road surfaces. -Snyder

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next week...

Snow shower activity will diminish Sunday evening, while on Monday
the upper level trough will slowly exit to the southeast as a high
pressure ridge amplifies across the Pacific Northwest. The southern
portion of this trough closes off and may produce light snow showers
mainly south of Highway 50 through the early evening, but little or
no accumulation is expected. Temperatures will remain quite cool
with highs only in the 40s for lower elevations and 30s near the
Sierra with brisk north winds during the daytime. Gusty north to
northeast winds will persist across ridges into Tuesday on the back
side of upper low.

For the remainder of next week, dry weather will prevail as the
upper level ridge builds into CA by midweek, then flattens later in
the week. This pattern will allow for a steady warming trend,
although highs will still be below average Tuesday. By midweek,
temperatures approach seasonal averages (near 60 for lower
valleys/50 near the Sierra), then become more spring-like toward
the end of the week with late day west breezes providing improved
mixing as the ridge flattens. Highs could reach 70 degrees by
Friday in many lower valleys. MJD



Another period of breezy winds is likely this afternoon with gusts
30-35 kt at the main terminals ahead of a cold front. This front
will bring another round of snow to eastern CA mainly from Tahoe
northward and in western NV north of I-80. IFR conditions with a
few inches of accumulating snow are likely for KTRK-KTVL
overnight, but amounts drop off to very little (0-1/2") for KRNO-
KCXP by early Saturday AM and nothing at KMMH. Additional snow
showers are possible Saturday night through Sunday with the
potential for a few inches again at KTVL-KTRK, mainly from 06Z-
15Z, but little or no accumulation at the other main terminals.
Isolated-scattered snow pellet showers look likely for Sunday
afternoon, with this activity winding down during the evening. MJD



The only notable river still rising is the Middle Fork Feather near
Portola, where a Flood Warning remains in effect with a crest
forecast for early Saturday morning. See the Flood Warning product
for more details. A few points of the Lower Truckee downstream of
Reno-Sparks have reached or will reach monitor stage today, but
then recede.

Otherwise, with the next weather systems today through this weekend
being colder and producing all snow, no hydrologic impacts are
expected. MJD


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for
     Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
     Sunday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
     Sunday CAZ070-071.

     Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for
     Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
     Sunday CAZ072.



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