Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 250645
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
245 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low continues bands of showers today. Southern
system may graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold fronts Friday
night and Saturday. High pressure Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday...

Upper level low and associated surface low to lift to the east
across Virginia today. Baroclinic zone and associated dynamics
will generally stay to our south an east. Some moisture in the
form of showers and clouds should continue to rotate into the
forecast area up until this system exits the east coast.

Unsettled wet weather will continue with best pop potential over
the eastern mountains. Overcast conditions till continue today
with models hinting that a few breaks may occur over southeast
Ohio late this afternoon and evening. Perhaps they will get to
see some sun there, a break from the wet overcast conditions
from the past few days. Used latest model blend for temps with
no real adjustments or changes from previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 AM Wednesday...

Models have trended toward last nights GFS, bringing a system
late Thursday into Friday further northward into the region. The
GFS tonight has trended even further northward and westward,
remaining the most aggressive model for rain over the forecast
area.

This system will be followed by a weak cold front Friday night
and a reinforcing front on Saturday. Models are in much better
agreement tonight with these systems, although there remains
some variation in how much precipitation the fronts can produce,
if any.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

A high pressure system will build over the area Saturday night,
and remain through Tuesday. Temperatures will gradual warm
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

Upper level low rotating east and will eventually move off the
east coast. Lots of low level moisture with stratus and showers
across the forecast area, leading to widespread IFR and MVFR,
especially invof mountainous terrain. Ceilings will drop
further toward morning as boundary layer decouples. Guidance is
very insistent on fog formation tonight. Can go with this
thinking, even with clouds, since fair amount of low level
moisture is in place. Conditions will be slow to improve on
Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form overnight -- or could
develop as more low stratus instead. Timing of category changes
may vary through tomorrow.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/25/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    L    L    M    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    L    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible into Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KMC



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