Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 121333

933 AM EST Thu Apr 12 2018

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

This is the last spring flood potential outlook in a series of
routine winter/spring flood potential statements intended to provide
insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding)
over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Southern
Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next two weeks.

This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-
Meteorological factors which contribute to river flooding. These
factors include recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover
and snow water equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future
weather conditions. This outlook does not address the severity of
any future river flooding.

The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from
April 17th through the 21st suggests below normal temperatures and
below normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area.
The 8 to 14 day outlook valid from April 19th through the 25th
suggests below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation
across the Hydrologic Service Area.

Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river
flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly
cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river
flooding potential is considered low or below normal.

Current flooding - None.

Precipitation - Precipitation departures across the Hydrologic
Service Area during the last 60 days ending on April 12th were
normal to above normal.

Snow depth and Water equivalent - There is currently no snow cover
grounds across the Hydrologic Service Area.

River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and
streams are running normal. Real-Time Water data can be found by
visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water.

Soil moisture - Above normal. Soil moisture and drought
related data and charts can be seen at: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and

Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City
water supply system are normal. Reservoir levels across the combined
13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs are 9 percent above normal.

Summary - During the two week outlook period expect temperatures to
remain below normal and precipitation to be below normal during the
first week of the outlook period then above normal during the
second week of the outlook period.

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