Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 202038
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

A closed upper-level low located over southern California and lower
Nevada will quickly weaken on Day 3/Tuesday, transitioning to an
open/weak trough by Day 4/Wednesday while lifting northeast toward
the northern Rockies. Some enhancement to the mid-level flow will
accompany this feature along its southern periphery as it undergoes
the aforementioned evolution. Generally weak upper-level flow looks
to settle in for the remainder of the forecast period, with perhaps
some signal of a trough entering the West Coast toward the end of
the period.

...Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday: Portions of the Southwest...
Warm and dry conditions will prevail across eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico for most of the forecast period, but the best
chance for seeing breezy conditions, and thus elevated fire
concerns, is on Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday. Mid-level
southwesterly winds of 30-35 kt will accompany the western closed
low/trough, and with diurnal heating these winds should mix toward
the surface. Thus, the 40%/marginal probabilities have been
maintained across the region, with a slight westward expansion made
on Day 4/Wednesday. In addition, there is some potential for locally
critical conditions to develop on Day 3/Tuesday across east-central
Arizona and west-central New Mexico, along with potential for
isolated dry thunderstorms across central New Mexico. There is too
much uncertainty the placement and evolution of these risks to
warrant any highlights at the current time.

Thereafter, the lack of appreciable mid-level flow should temper
fire-weather concerns despite hot/dry conditions remaining in place
across portions of the Southwest.

..Karstens.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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