Suppression Forecast
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FNAK71 PAFC 161306
FWSAER

Spot Forecast for Shuyak Port Williams Oil Spill...USCG
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 AM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Forecast is based on incident time of 0700 AKDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Several fronts will make for rather wet conditions with moderate
easterly flow through the middle of the week. The first front will
move in this morning and bring upwards of a half inch of rain to
the island through this evening. Easterly flow will continue to
push moisture up against the terrain and produce lowering
ceilings and visibilities in places. While rain will lighten up
overnight into Tue, conditions on the whole will improve very
little as the front falls apart over the area. The next front will
be right on its heels Tue reinvigorating the steady rain and
reinforcing the easterly flow.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 42.
Surface winds.......East winds 17 to 18 mph.
Wave height.........2 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Freezing spray......None.
Sea surface temp....41F.

Marine route:
Kodiak to Port William...SE to E wind 10 to 15 kt...except NE 20
to 30 north of Afognak Island and along Shelikof Strait. Seas 3 to
6 ft.

Port William to Homer...E wind 30 to 35 kt through the Barren
Islands. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Near Homer/Kachemak Bay...N to NE winds 5
to 15 kt with seas 2 to 3 ft.

Aviation: LIFR conditions in fog may improve to MVFR this morning
before becoming IFR again this afternoon. Occasional to
continuous moderate icing 6000-16000 ft in the morning becoming
isolated moderate in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain in the evening,
                    then rain likely after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Surface winds.......East winds 15 to 17 mph.
Wave height.........2 to 4 feet.
Freezing spray......None.
Sea surface temp....41F.

Marine route:
Kodiak to Port William...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

Port William to Homer...E wind 20 to 30 kt through the Barren
Islands. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Near Homer/Kachemak Bay...N to NE winds
10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4
ft.

Aviation: IFR conditions likely. Isolated moderate icing
6000-16000 ft.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 43.
Surface winds.......East winds 15 to 17 mph.
Wave height.........3 to 5 feet.
Freezing spray......None.
Sea surface temp....41F.

Marine route:
Kodiak to Port William...E wind 15 to 20 kt...except NE 20 to 30
north of Afognak Island. Seas 2 to 5 ft...except 8 to 11 ft north
of Afognak Island.

Port William to Homer...E wind 25 to 30 kt through the Barren
Islands increasing to 30 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 12
ft building to 11 to 14 ft in the afternoon. Near Homer/Kachemak
Bay...N to E 5 to 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 to 3 ft.

Aviation: IFR conditions likely with slow improvement MVFR through
the day. Isolated moderate icing 6000-16000 ft.

$$
Forecaster...Ottenweller
Requested by...NOAA SSC, Catherine Berg
Type of request...MARINE
.TAG 1802635.47/AER
.EMAIL catherine.berg@noaa.gov



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