Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FNUS71 KBTV 191142
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Twin Lakes Fire...NYS Dept of Environmental Conservation
National Weather Service Burlington VT
742 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather will be ending by late this morning. A band of rain showers
currently across central NY (as of 735am) is progressing steadily
north and will be reaching the fire area shortly before noon. On and off
rain will continue for much of the afternoon. The shower activity will
have a lull during the evening, before another round of showers will
develop late tonight and last into early Sunday morning. Expect a wetting
rain this afternoon, with rainfall amounts about 1/4".  Another 1/4" of
rain is expected with showers overnight and early Sunday.

Humidity values will be lowest late this morning, just prior to the rain,
and steadily increase this afternoon and overnight.

Winds will be gusty from the south, especially prior to the rain and
then again this evening during the lull in rain shower activity.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers developing
                    just prior to noon, and continuing in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...beginning 11am-12noon.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 21 mph shifting to the south 23
                    to 24 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........81     90     98     100    97
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE OCNL   DEFNTE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     40     80     100    70
Temp............52     60     60     59     57
RH..............52     41     46     57     69
20 ft wind......SE 10  SE 12  SE 13  SE 14  S 16
20 ft wind gust.14     17     19     21     23
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1500   1700   1000   1300
Transport wind..SE 13  SE 17  SE 18  SE 18  S 23
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers
                    after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...continuing.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......900-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........98     93     72     83     77     90
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY OCNL
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC         S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50     30     30     30     70     80
Temp............59     58     58     57     58     57
RH..............67     75     80     86     86     93
20 ft wind......S 15   S 13   S 14   S 14   SW 13  SW 13
20 ft wind gust.24     20     19     21     20     19
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1000   1000   1000   900    900
Transport wind..S 23   S 18   S 18   S 18   SW 17  SW 17
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...ending after 12noon.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 18 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......900-2500 ft AGL increasing to 3100-3800 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........98     99     96     91     80     58
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).90     90     70     50     20     20
Temp............58     59     59     60     63     65
RH..............93     93     83     72     62     50
20 ft wind......SW 12  W 10   W 9    W 9    W 10   NW 9
20 ft wind gust.18     16     12     11     11     12
Mix hgt (ft)....900    900    1500   1800   1900   3100
Transport wind..SW 17  W 16   NW 15  NW 15  NW 15  NW 16
Haines index....3      3      2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...Nash
Requested by...FR Adam Baldwin
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1810308.0/BTV
.DELDT 05/19/18
.EMAIL adam.baldwin@dec.ny.gov



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