Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 181217
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Union Grove...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
717 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions and breezy southeast winds are expected today.
Relative humidity values will drop into the 30s and 40s by this
afternoon. Good mixing heights combined with the transport winds
will create excellent smoke dispersion. Mainly dry on Saturday
followed by thunderstorm chances Saturday night and Sunday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......5500-7400 ft AGL increasing to 7000-7600 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  28  34  40  41  37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............76  78  79  80  81  82
RH..............52  50  49  46  44  43
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  12  13  14
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  15  16  18
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.18  17  16  16  16  17
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......5900-6400 ft AGL decreasing to 300-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 18 mph shifting to the southeast 2
                    to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........31     26     34     38     42     47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............81     76     67     62     60     57
RH..............44     52     70     81     81     90
20 ft wind......E 13   E 10   E 8    E 7    E 5    E 5
20 ft wind gust.16     13
Mix hgt (ft)....6400   4200   800    800    600    300
Transport wind..SE 18  E 13   NE 5   E 8    SE 9   SE 3
Haines index....4      4      3      3      3      3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4700 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 5 mph shifting to the northwest
                    7 to 10 mph late in the morning, then shifting
                    to the southeast 3 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........48        47        57        64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............56        65        75        79
RH..............96        75        58        49
20 FT wind......E 6       E 6       E 5       E 5
Mix hgt (ft)....300       2000      3800      4600
Transport wind..E 2       SW 7      N 12      E 6
Haines index....3         4         5         4

$$
Forecaster...Donavon
Requested by...Rodney Ellingson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810269.0/DMX
.DELDT 05/18/18
.EMAIL rodney.ellingson@dnr.iowa.gov


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