Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 231528
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Buzzard...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
928 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1000 MDT on May 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
West to southwest winds will bring warm dry weather with above normal
temperatures across the Gila today through early next week. Near Red
Flag conditions may occur over some locations Saturday and Sunday
afternoons. Winds will become more breezy in the afternoon hours
Sunday and thereafter.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph
                    with gusts to around 25 mph in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL increasing to 10900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (103100 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (206200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      9      9      9
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............64     70     73     74
RH..............22     18     16     15
20 ft wind......S 7    SW 12  SW 14  SW 15
20 ft wind gust.15     20     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....7400   10900  10900  10900
Transport wind..S 14   SW 18  SW 22  SW 23
Haines index....3      4      4      4
Vent Rate.......VYGD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 11 mph with gusts to around 20-25
                    mph becoming light.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 3 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (153300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (0 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........3      3      3      3      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............72     66     59     54     49     47
RH..............15     18     23     27     31     34
20 ft wind......SW 15  SW 14  SW 10  W 6    S 6    S 5
20 ft wind gust.25     20     15     15     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....8500   8500   8500   BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SW 21  SW 13  SW 6   SW 2   S 2    SE 1
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vent Rate.......EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 9 to 14 mph with
                    gusts to around 20-25 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL increasing to 11900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (99500 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (178200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........5         5         5         5
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        60        73        77
RH..............35        18        11        9
20 FT wind......S 4G10    S 5G10    S 10G15   SW 13G20-25
Mix hgt (ft)....8100      8100      11900     11900
Transport wind..SE 1      S 7       S 16      SW 17
Haines index....4         4         5         6
Vent Rate.......GOOD      GOOD      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...NOVLAN
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1810551.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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