Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FNUS73 KGRR 262320
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Koenig RX...USFS HMF
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
720 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will drop down from the north this evening.
South to southwest wind will prevail through around 11 pm.
Then a north to northwest wind will develop by 100 am.
There could be a few brief showers mainly after midnight.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely overnight.
Temperature.........56 at ignition...Min 36.
RH..................37 percent at ignition...Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 7 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise South winds 5 to 10 mph
                    shifting to the northwest 5 to 8 mph through
                    about 2 am, then shifting to the north 5 to 10
                    mph with gusts to around 18 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 800-1300 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 8 to 12 mph shifting to the north 6
                    to 15 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....200 /fair/ at ignition. Min...0 /poor/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
Sky (%).........49     67     84     98     97     77
Weather cov.....              CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............56     49     44     41     38     37
RH..............37     44     51     59     79     89
20 ft wind......SW 7   S 8    S 8    NE 7   N 9    N 8
20 ft wind gust.12     12     13            18
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   600    600    900    1200   1200
Haines index....4      3      3      2      2      2
Smoke Dispersal 200    100    0      0      100    200

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 51.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4500-5000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........North 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100-500 (poor to good).
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until midnight. Chance of snow showers
                    after midnight.
Temperature.........Min 31.
RH..................Max 88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......2800-3300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........North 7 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 23 mph
                    after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....200-800 (fair to excellent).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Sekelsky
Requested by...Kevin Reese
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1808041.0/GRR
.EMAIL Kevinreese@fs.fs.us



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